MLB Monday tends to be lighter day after the whole league was in action over the weekend. On tap is an 11-game slate with plenty of inter-league coverage. We’re fresh off a 2-0 night in the MLB player prop market and we’re targeting a familiar opponent. Also, check out all our MLB predictions!
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Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) Over 17.5 Outs (-140)
Line available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
Out props tend to be juicy, especially when you’re backing a pitcher who is more than capable of going 6-7 innings deep and now gets a favorable matchup. Yesterday, we backed Vince Velasquez of the Pittsburgh Pirates to go over 15.5 outs against the same opponent that Eovaldi will face tonight, the Cincinnati Reds. Velasquez was our 3-star player prop bet and he coasted through 7 innings without allowing a run. Let’s dive into Eovaldi.
Nathan Eovaldi is in his first year with the Texas Rangers after a 5-year stint with the Boston Red Sox. The best part of Eovaldi’s game last season was his away splits. He had a 2.64 ERA and pitched 6 innings in 6 of 10 starts. It’s much of the same this season. In both of his home starts this season, he failed to pitch even into the 6th while on the road he pitched 5.2 innings in his first away game and then 6 innings in his last start.
Eovaldi’s reverse pitching splits are a concern due to the Reds having 6 right-handed bats in their lineup but their hitting at the 8th worst rate against right-handed pitching and have allowed 5 of the last 7 right-handed starters to eclipse this number.
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Jordan Montgomery (STL) Over 17.5 Outs (-130)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing.
Jordan Montgomery was a staple in the Cardinals rotation when they acquired him from the New Yankees at the trade deadline. Fast forward to this season and the whole Cardinals rotation has been a mess. The NL Central is thriving with the Pirates and Brewers surging to start the season and the Cubs out to a 12-9 record. The Cardinals will be expected to pursue a starting pitcher at the deadline if they have their sights set on the postseason but for now, they will have to lean on Montgomery.
Montgomery will lead the charge against a woeful Giants team that can’t solve left-handing pitching. They hit at the 7th worst clip and strikeout 31% of the time. Montgomery ran into trouble against the Diamondbacks in his last start who is a quality opponent. He was coasting through 3 innings and preceded to allow 7 hits in the top of the 4th.
This a huge start for Montgomery in terms of his confidence bouncing back. He’s over this line in 2 of 4 starts this season with both overs resulting in him pitching into the 7th inning.’
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