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Sunday Baseball is back! All 30 teams will be in action today, with 1st pitch coming at 1:10 E.T. Tons of value is on the board as pitcher props continue to drop. On Twitter, we are a personal 6-1 to start the year. You can catch all my plays at JutPicks.
Let’s dive into this massive slate and my favorite MLB player prop bets.
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Baltimore Orioles Over 1.5 runs 1st 5 innings (-155)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This Orioles’ offense is loaded with young talent. The top of their lineup consists of an all-star speedster in Cedric Mullins to lead it off, arguably the best catcher in the league at only 25 years old in switch hitter Adley Rutschman, and fellow switch hitter Anthony Santander batting 4th behind 21-year-old Gunnar Henderson. Today they will be battling against right-handed pitcher Tanner Houck in Boston with winds blowing out to right field.
Houck was a mess in spring training, allowing 22 runs in 20.1 innings pitched. His home splits in 2022 were a huge concern for Boston. He had a 4.45 ERA in 30 innings pitched, during which he allowed 25 hits and 15 runs. Houck pitched most of the season in the bullpen, so he is not very familiar with this Orioles lineup. The lineup will most likely feature 5 lefties and a starting 9 that mashed righties for a top-10 average of .251 from July to the end of the season. This offense is an MLB player prop bettors dream backing and that probably won’t stop today.
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Chris Bassitt (TOR) Over 15.5 outs (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Bassitt was quietly one of the biggest acquisitions this offseason. He had a phenomenal year with the Mets in his only season with the club. It paid off bigtime, as he signed a 3-year deal for $63 million. Bassitt will have his hands full against a deep St. Louis Cardinals lineup, but his last spring training outing in which he threw 95 pitches is intriguing for this prop.
These lines are worrisome because it’s only the 1st series of the season. With that being said, it’s too low. For this prop to cash Bassitt has to record an out in the 6th inning. He did that in 25 of 31 games last season and was a big reason why the New York Mets won 100+ games. He was a cash cow for MLB player pro bettors when it came to his over-on-outs recorded and should continue to be when lines like this are put out.
Check out today’s +761 MLB mega parlay!
Brad Keller (KCR) Over 4.5 hits allowed (-130)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Here we are fading another right-handed pitcher against a loaded offense. Keller will be facing off against a Minnesota Twins team that ranked in the top 10 in batting average and wRC against right-handed pitching. Keller made 2 starts against the Twins last season and allowed a combined 16 hits.
Like Houck, he had a tough spring training. In his last 2 outings he allowed 12 hits in 9.0 innings. His previous appearance was encouraging from a big-picture standpoint. He pitched 5.0 innings and didn’t allow a run. I’ll take him going deep into this game. The longer he’s pitching, the more hits he’s going to allow.
Projected 20 MPH winds will be blowing all day long so expect some balls to land in the upper decks. This Twins’ lineup can put up runs in a hurry and is a safe bet to make Keller work all day long.
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