JutPicks
A 10-game MLB slate that begins at 12:10 pm ET and concludes after 11:00 pm ET takes center stage on Thursday with no NBA games and the end of the NHL regular season with nothing on the line. With that in mind, let’s get into today’s best MLB player prop bets, while you can also find out our MLB picks for all of the big matchups on Thursday, April 17.
Mariners vs Reds F5 Over 4.5 Runs (-118)
Odds available at BetMGM at time of publishing.
Slight winds blowing in at Great American Ball Park won’t hold me off backing the first 5 innings total of 4.5 runs between the Mariners and Reds. Brady Singer and Emerson Hancock will go head-to-head as both right-handers are more than hittable. Hancock would like to forget his first outing of the season. He failed to make it out of the 1st inning, allowing 6 runs on 7 hits against the Tigers. It won’t get much easier against the Reds and Elly De La Cruz in one of the friendliest ballparks for hitters in baseball — ranking in the top 5 in ballpark factor according to Baseball Savant.
On the other side, Brady Singer dominated in his last outing — pitching through the 7th inning, allowing just 1 hit against the Rangers. But we’ll bank on regression on his side, as he pitched to nearly a 5.00 xERA last season.
Don’t miss our Royals vs Tigers Same Game Parlay picks at +1400 odds, with our expert having already cashed 3 of their 4 SGPs this season!
Taj Bradley (TB) Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-125)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing.
When targeting the hits-allowed market, we’re looking for a pitcher with a high strikeout rate and a below-average BB%. Taj Bradley fits that mold. He’s off to a solid start in 2025, as he ranks in the 66th percentiles in xERA and xBA, while holding a 31% K rate — putting him in the 84th percentile. With an outs line of 16.5 juiced to the under and a Yankees implied team total of 4.5 runs, the books expect Bradley to have another solid outing against a Yankees team he shut down twice last season — 13 IP, 5 hits allowed and 12 K’s.
