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A full 15-game slate is ahead of us come Friday Night. The Tampa Bay Rays look to become the first team in modern day history to start a season 14-0. They will try to tee off on Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Jose Berrios, who is my top MLB player prop bet. Also, check out all of our MLB predictions for the 15-game slate.
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Jose Berrios (TOR) Over 2.5 earned runs (-105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
It’s always a good day for MLB player prop bettors when Jose Berrios is on the mound. Berrios has been one of the most disappointing pitchers in baseball the last 2 seasons. Last season as a member of the Blue Jays he recorded a 5.28 ERA and was 1 hit shy of allowing 200. Fast forward to this season and it hasn’t been much better. Through 2 starts he has allowed a combined 12 earned runs on 15 hits.
His opponent in the Tampa Bay Rays is a pitcher’s nightmare at the moment. The Rays have yet to lose a game this season. They have played bottom of the barrel teams, but 13-0 is nothing short of impressive. A lot of motivation will be on the table come Friday night. This will be their toughest test to date, but Berrios is not someone Rays hitters should fear. Tampa Bay is projected to have 6 right-handed bats in the lineup. This is crucial because of Berrios’ reverse splits. In 18 at-bats by right-handed hitters, Berrios has allowed 8 hits and an OBP of .450.
The Rays are hitting a league second best .283 against right-handed pitchers behind only the Toronto Blue Jays. Randy Arozarena and Manuel Margot have phenomenal numbers against Berrios and can jumpstart the top and bottom of the order. As a team, the Rays have scored at least 3 runs on right-handed starting pitchers in 6 of 7 games. Expect the bats to continue to stay hot against a pitcher in the midst of his worst stretch of his career.
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Sean Manaea (SFG) Under 5.5 hits allowed (+105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Sean Manaea is not someone I was too comfortable backing last season. His near 5.00 ERA as a member of the San Diego Padres left him looking for a new team in 2023. The San Francisco Giants took him along for a 2-year deal and looks like it paid off. In his first start of the season against the Kansas City Royals, Manaea threw 76 pitches and allowed only 3 hits.
Tonight it may get even easier against a Detroit Tigers team hitting a league-worst .189 against left-handed pitching. For their sake, they have faced some tough starters. The Tampa Bay Rays’ duo of Shane McClanahan and Jeffrey Springs allowed four combined hits over 12.0 innings. Astros star Framber Valdez did allow 8 hits but also fanned 9 batters.
Manaea is more than capable of having a dominant outing. His pitch count should rise and could potentially get nearly 8 strikeouts. When he throws more than 60 pitches, Manaea is under this line in 16 of 29 starts dating back to last season. He looks to be a completely different pitcher than last season with a change of scenery all him needing.
Patrick Sandoval (LAA) Under 5.5 hits allowed (-135)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Here we are again backing a lefty for our third MLB player prop bet. Patrick Sandoval has been sensational in the last month since the World Baseball Classic. Through 2 starts this season he has a 1.64 ERA with right-handed batters hitting .194 against him.
Very much like the Tigers, the Boston Red Sox have had tough battles against left-handed starters this season. Yesterday they faced Springs, who only went 3.0 innings due to an injury. Springs was virtually unhittable. The Red Sox mustered together only 1 hit and struck out 5 times. The game before that Shane McClanahan allowed only 2 hits in 5.0 innings of work. They are hitting .240 against southpaws and striking out at the 9th-highest rate.
Sandoval was much better on the road than at home last season. He had a 2.54 ERA and allowed less than 6 hits in 9 of his last 15 games including 2 in his first start of the season. Sandoval is becoming a bright star in this league and will look to continue his sensational start to 2023 at Fenway Park.
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