Javan Shouey
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We have only 7 MLB games to choose from this Thursday but there is still value to be found in the player prop market. My favorite MLB prop bet for today is in the Phillies at Reds matchup, so let’s dive in. But first, make sure you check out our handicappers’ MLB picks for all 7 games today.
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Bailey Falter (PHI) under 4.5 strikeouts (-111)
Available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds.
Taking any under on a pitcher facing the Cincinnati Reds can seem scary but I see value in fading Bailey Falter tonight. This is a tough scheduling spot for the young left-hander who made his last start against this same team. He pitched well, allowing just 1 run in 5 IP, but only recorded 2 strikeouts across his 86 pitches. Falter has natural splits where he is far more successful against left-handed batters. He sees a 4.8% decrease in his strikeout rate when facing right-handed batters and Cincinnati’s projected lineup shows 8 right-handed bats today. So far this season through 32 AB from right-handers, Falter has only 3 strikeouts. Last season, Falter allowed a .273 average and .818 OPS against batters from the right side.
Generally, when we get repeat matchups within a close proximity, the advantage goes to the hitters. I love this aspect of the play as Falter is a pitcher who tends to struggle the 2nd time through the order. The increased familiarity with his pitch mix should be beneficial for us tonight. Last season, the southpaw ranked in the 19th percentile or worse in xERA, xBA and xSLG. He also posted lackluster barrel rate and exit velocity numbers.
Another massive aspect of the play is the 3 largest strikeout threats are projected to be at the bottom of the order. He is likely to only face 20-22 batters and in his 18 starts in the last 2 seasons, he has been held under this mark 10 times. Steamer and THE BAT both project Falter for a K/9 below 8 this season. His early returns agree with his 8th percentile chase rate and 12th percentile whiff rate resulting in a 4.35 K/9.
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