Ahaan Rungta
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Major League Baseball has been wild so far with the new rules. Pitch clock violations have resulted in strikeouts, smaller bases have resulted in a stolen-base rampage, and bottom-tier teams have started the season on fire. There still remains a ton of value in the player props market and I have found some value spots on a slate with daytime and nighttime action. Here are my best MLB player prop bets for Wednesday, April 12, but make sure you also check out our MLB picks for every single game today.
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Blake Snell (SDP) under 4.5 hits allowed (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Blake Snell has been inconsistent in his tenure as a Padre but we have found a great spot for him in New York today. He has begun the season with back-to-back appearances with 6 hits allowed; so why is the line so low? Going back to last season, he has stayed under this line in 16 of his 26 regular-season starts and 8 out of 10 on the road. In 2022, Snell was not just better on the road but also more stingy in giving up hits to right-handed batters, which the Mets are starting 7 of today. In that season, he allowed a .213 AVG, .282 wOBA against right-handers and on the road that dipped to a .203 AVG, .277 wOBA.
This season, the Mets’ offense ranks outside the top-15 in MLB in AVG, wOBA, and wRC+ against left-handed pitchers. They rank #20 in run value/100 against fastballs and #22 in run value/100 against sliders, which are Snell’s primary weapons to attack the zone and put away hitters, respectively. Back the former Cy Young winner in the daytime rubber match.
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Amed Rosario (CLE) over 0.5 stolen bases (+310)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Stolen bases are more of a longshot market for obvious reasons — we need a bunch of things to go right: the hitter to find first base, face a starter who has issues holding runners and an aggressive manager. We get a shot at all of them with Amed Rosario today though. It’s clear Guardians manager Terry Francona wants to play small ball as five separate hitters in today’s Cleveland lineup have already stolen at least three bases this season, including Rosario.
Today, Rosario faces starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt, who doesn’t allow a ton of hard contact to right-handed batters but can get burned by contact hitters like Rosario when he misses his spot in the zone. This season, Rosario has posted a .229 AVG and .238 wOBA with a .000 ISO, 64.0% groundball rate and 32.0% hard-hit rate against right-handed pitchers. He’s looking to hit the ball hard but isn’t going to do it with a launch, making him a prime candidate to reach first base. The aggressive baserunning nature of the Guardians should come in handy today, since Schmidt has allowed a 5.7% stolen base per opportunity rate to second base, per EV Analytics, making him a well above-average matchup for runners to take off. That gives this prop fantastic value.
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