Ahaan Rungta
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We have just a couple of weeks left in the 2023 MLB season; with the electricity of the postseason comes betting value and on a two-game slate with both Championship Series in action, it is our job to find the money spots. Here is my best player prop bet for each game of the American League and National League Championship Series on Thursday, October 19.
Bryce Harper (PHI) OVER 0.5 walks (-115)
Line available at BetMGM at time of publishing; recommended 1u wager.
This is a prop that was teased on my Twitter on Wednesday night and while some sportsbooks have started juicing it, it is still available at the listed price on BetMGM.
⚾️ 1u – Bryce Harper (-115, BetMGM)
Price is still not steep enough; give me one good argument to not run this #Postseason wagon back for exactly the same reasons.
ARI will consider intentionally walking him in any clutch situation and ARI SP Brandon Pfaadt could lose him even… https://t.co/KBc8Pn5yMD pic.twitter.com/T0dI7jmbgn
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) October 19, 2023
The future Hall-of-Famer Bryce Harper has a ridiculous 175 wRC+ in his postseason career and he and in this year’s Phillies playoff run, he has four home runs and 7 runs batted in over eight games. In this span, pitchers have started realizing they need to be careful throwing him strikes and Harper has drawn at least one walk in six of the eight games, including two intentional walks. With the Diamondbacks down 2-0 in the series, they will likely be careful with Harper and could simply intentionally walk him in any clutch situation, which would cash our bat. However, even unintentionally, Arizona’s starter Brandon Pfaadt could lose Harper. This season, Pfaadt’s walk rate has spiked up to 8.2% against left-handed hitters and home plate umpire Mike Muchlinski has been fairly neutral as a ball-strike caller in his career. This prop is good up to -125.
Andrew Heaney (TEX) over 10.5 outs (+104)
Line available at FanDuel at time of publishing; recommended 1u wager.
You see low lines in the “pitching outs” market during the postseason because managers have no issues getting help out of the bullpen as necessary with their season on the line. However, this number is a bit too low for Andrew Heaney, who has made two career postseason appearances. In 2022, he made a Division Series appearance as the bulk pitcher, throwing 3.0 innings (9 pitching outs), only giving up one earned run. This season, he made a start in the Division Series, going 3.2 innings (11 pitching outs), giving up only one earned run.
Although Heaney’s peripherals were not great in that start (5.60 SIERA), he gets a good spot against the Astros on Thursday night. Heaney’s primary pitch is a four-seam fastball, which he uses over 55% of the time. In the postseason, the Astros have posted a mediocre -0.38 run value/100 against four-seamers and a below-league-average 3.71 pitches per plate appearance against left-handed pitchers; expect Heaney to establish the zone with his four-seamer and earn some quick outs from this aggressive Houston lineup to help him get through the order quickly.
With Texas having to use six pitchers in their Wednesday night loss, they would prefer to use Heaney for a full four innings if possible, especially if he holds his end of the bargain and pitches well.
We get great plus-money value on FanDuel Sportsbook on a line that is already at 11.5 on most other books. If you cannot get the 10.5 number, you can take the over on 11.5 up to -120 juice but for only a 0.50u wager.
