Javan Shouey
Saturday baseball is here, and so is the warm weather! Make sure to check the forecast before placing bets today, as there are hot temperatures and tons of wind on today’s slate.
Today’s article focuses on Garrett Crochet and his matchup with his former club, the Chicago White Sox. Let’s dive in!
Garrett Crochet (BOS) to record the win (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -130 odds. Risking 1u.
The Boston Red Sox are -330 favorites on the ML today against the Chicago White Sox, and their price to win by multiple runs starts at -150. To lead through 5 innings of play is priced -180, and I expect them to carry that lead to the finish line in today’s matchup. For a starting pitcher to record a win, he must pitch at least 5 innings while leaving the game with a lead and his team may not surrender that lead at any point. It is a parlay of sorts, but this is the most valuable way of backing the Red Sox today in my opinion.
Garrett Crochet will make his fifth start for the Red Sox after being acquired from the White Sox in an offseason trade. He made 32 starts with Chicago last season after serving as a reliever to begin his career, and he showed out with 209 strikeouts and a 3.58 ERA across 146.0 innings pitched. He was on an awful team and had his workload limited toward the end of 2024, resulting in just 6 recorded wins in those 32 outings. Crochet now finds himself on a playoff-hopeful Red Sox team looking to make noise in the American League East.
My concerns with this play are that Crochet is a left-hander pitching in Fenway Park, which is rarely an easy task. He also just faced this White Sox lineup in his last start, and I tend to favor offense during close proximity rematches. Still, there is more than enough pros to outweigh those cons. Chicago ranks 28th in wOBA so far this season against left-handed pitching while generating a wRC+ of just 56. Crochet struck out 11 White Sox across 7.1 innings of 1-run ball during their last matchup, carrying a no-hitter late into that outing. Behind him is a well-rested Boston bullpen that ranks 2nd in FIP so far in 2025.
Shane Smith will start the game for the White Sox, making his 4th career MLB start. He faced this Boston lineup last Sunday and pitched well to the tune of 6.0 innings of 2-run ball. Still, Smith is a rookie making a close-proximity rematch start for the first time at this level. Boston has performed far better against right-handed pitching when at home so far this season, and hitting conditions are ideal for the bats to continue the momentum from yesterday’s game. With temperatures in the low-80s and wind blowing heavily out to center field, I like Boston to jump ahead early in this game and never look back.
Chad Patrick (MIL) Under 4.5 strikeouts (-142)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds. Risking 1u.
Our second play of the day may be less fun to watch but still has awesome value in my opinion. Chad Patrick is set to make his fifth MLB appearance and fourth start in today’s game against the Athletics. I am targeting the under on his strikeout prop in a sneakily tough matchup. The Athletics were one of the more strikeout-prone lineups in the sport last season, but a change in philosophy has seemingly flipped the script in 2025. When they played in Oakland, the Athletics were one of the more patient lineups — ranking toward the top of the league in pitches per plate appearance while recording a low swing rate. This season is different, with the Athletics recording the lowest P/PA at 3.61 and swinging at the league’s fourth-highest rate. Preventing 2-strike counts is crucial when trying to avoid the strikeout and the results have shown with a 17.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching so far through their first 641 plate appearances. That is the second-largest sample in the league, and I am buying in to their new approach following recent results against strikeout artists.
Last night Freddy Peralta generated just 5 strikeouts in this matchup despite a 6.5 prop, and each of the prior 8 right-handed starters the A’s have faced have stayed under this 4.5 line. Overall, 12 of the 18 righties they have seen have recorded 4 or fewer Ks against them. Patrick recorded a 23.0% strikeout rate last season across 124.0 innings split between AA and AAA and 2 different organizations. Projection sources have him right around 20.5% this season as a rookie and his underlying metrics to begin the season have not impressed me. So far through his first 15.1 MLB innings pitched, the right-hander ranks in just the eighth percentile with his 17.2% whiff rate. He is drawing opponents outside the zone for swings at an above-average rate, but their contact rate on those chases sits 18.9% higher than league average. The Athletics have connected on their chases at the league’s 12th-best rate. We also haven’t seen Patrick’s workload overextended, with no more than 20 batters faced in any start so far. With a relatively fresh Milwaukee bullpen, we should see a similar workload today. I would bet this prop to -150 odds.
