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The two greatest words in sports: Game 7. The Astros host the Rangers in a win or go home game to determine who will represent the AL in the World Series. Before the AL finale, the Phillies will host the Diamondbacks as they’re one game away from back-to-back NL pennants.
You can read our MLB predictions for today’s games, but for now let’s dive into the best MLB player prop bet for Monday, October 23.
Brandon Marsh (PHI) Over 0.5 hits (-110)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Brandon Marsh has been a pivotal part of the Phillies success this postseason. He’s looked at as an afterthought since he’s hitting in the eight-hole and slatted behind Nick Castellanos, but he’s put together a solid October. He’s riding a 7-game hitting streak, including cashing this prop in all but one home game this postseason.
The knock on Marsh has been his success against LHP. During the regular season, it was a problem. He hit below .230 with minimal pop. He was consistently getting pinch hit for when a left-handed reliever would enter the game. This postseason has been a different story. He’s 3/6 off LHP this postseason and 10/31 all together this postseason. With that small sample size of success against LHP and elite outfield presence, Marsh is not getting pinch hit for late in games. Instead, it’s 9-hole hitter Johan Rojas, who has been struggling at the plate.
Marsh will be matched up against Merrill Kelly to start the game. We saw this matchup in Game 2, but Marsh failed to record a hit. Instead, Marsh roped a double against LHP Joe Mantiply in the 6th – right after Kelly exited. The familiarity of seeing Kelly just a week ago should pay dividends for Marsh, who is hitting .323 this postseason.
Marcus Semien (TEX) Over 0.5 runs (-110)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Marcus Semien showed up last night in a big way. He reached base four times as he walked twice and recorded two singles. Texas will need their star second baseman to show up in this elimination game if they want a chance to represent the AL in the World Series.
Like the NL series, this is a repeat matchup between two elite arms. We’ll focus on Crristian Javier as he’s standing between us, cashing this player prop bet. Javier’s postseason pedigree is as solid as they come. He was a massive part of the Astros title run last year and hasn’t missed a step this postseason. In 10.2 innings pitched, Javier has given up just 4 hits but has surrendered 6 walks. His 9.0% walk rate is a concern that Semien can take advantage of early, and eventually cross home plate for the 4th time this series. Semien will look to lead off the party with either a hit or walk as he ranks in the 91st percentile K% and 64th percentile BB%.
The advantage of hitting in the top of the 9th is crucial for a prop like this. Even though Semien reached base 4 times last night, he only scored in the top of the 9th due to an Adolis Garcia grand slam. Hopefully, Semien cashes early for us like Yordan Alvarez did. He cashed our over 1.5 hits + runs + rbi in the 1st inning!
Don’t miss our Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros Same Game Parlay!
