Ahaan Rungta
Show Bio
We are set for another fine day of MLB action with an 11-game slate and some great spots for betting value. Here are my best player prop bets for Thursday, April 27, both of which are two-leg parlays on evening games. Make sure you also check out our MLB picks for each of today’s matchups. Here at Pickswise, we’ve cashed our last 7 MLB player prop bets in a row, so let’s keep that streak going!
These MLB player prop picks have the best odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook, and if you sign up right now, then you can bet $5 and secure $150 in bonus bets IMMEDIATELY! Head over to DraftKings now by clicking this link.
Prop Parlay: Joey Wentz (DET) not to record the win & Joey Lucchesi (NYM) over 1.5 earned runs (+105)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing; recommended 0.5u wager.
If your name is Joey, let it be known that Joey was my favorite character on Friends and I do realize we are exactly a month removed from 2023 National Joe Day. I apologize for fading two men with this fantastic name but we have to in the name of value.
This is a two-leg player prop parlay, so let’s break it down:
- Joey Wentz (Tigers) to record a win: No
- Joey Lucchesi (Mets) over 1.5 earned runs
This season, Wentz has made four starts and he has pitched 5.1 innings, 1.2 innings, 5.2 innings, and 4.0 innings. To record a win, he would need to go at least 5.0 innings, leave the game with the Tigers leading the ballgame, and the bullpen to not blow that lead ever. That seems like an awfully tall task and an easy sell at the -400 price of this leg. The Orioles have a 123 wRC+ against left-handed pitchers like Wentz this season, which ranks No. 6 in MLB. Wentz has posted an atrocious 5.75 xFIP and 5.39 SIERA this season: this rough start to the year is not a coincidence, he simply might not be good enough to pitch to good lineups like Baltimore’s.
Meanwhile, Joey Lucchesi has arguably the most impressive outing by a major league starter this season. In his first start at the big league level since getting Tommy John surgery in 2021, Lucchesi went 7.0 innings on just 97 pitches, allowed just 4 hits, racked up 9 strikeouts on a 33% CSW% and allowed zero earned runs. The catch: that was against the San Francisco Giants, who have posted a 75 wRC+ against southpaws this season, which is the third-worst in baseball.
The Nationals’ lineup is better and should humble Lucchesi’s modest pitch repertoire. Washington’s 110 wRC+ against left-handers ranks top-ten in MLB and their 1.21 run value/100 against sinkers (Lucchesi’s top weapon of choice) ranks second-best in MLB. Lucchesi’s prop straight is listed at -155 on DraftKings and I would be okay with playing it on its own at that price, but unjuicing it to get plus-money odds with Wentz’s fantastic value is my move.
Need a new sportsbook? Check out SuperBook, which is the top-rated sportsbook in Vegas and has a great new customer offer where you can claim up to $250 as a sign-up bonus when you use promo code “Pickswise”! Click here to join SuperBook.
Same Game Parlay: Tyler Mahle 5+ strikeouts & Twins ML (-110)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing; recommended 0.50u wager.
Tyler Mahle’s strikeout line is juiced heavily to the over at 5.5. Instead of paying up for that expensive prop straight, we’ll take the correlation of Mahle doing his job with the Twins bouncing back from a blowout loss yesterday and beating the inferior Royals starting Zack Greinke.
This season, Greinke has posted a 4.61 ERA and 5.45 xERA on a 26th percentile xwOBA, 41st percentile hard-hit rate, 42nd percentile barrel rate and 12th percentile whiff rate. We might be getting a discount on the Twins today because Greinke has faced this team once this season and allowed just two runs in 5.1 innings pitched. However, even in that start, luck was on his side and he posted a mediocre 4.47 xFIP. If Mahle shows up and has his stuff, the Twins should get out to a lead and be able to utilize the high-leverage arms in their bullpen, which ranks fourth by xFIP in MLB as a team.
Mahle gets a fantastic spot today to do just that. This season, he ranks in the 72nd percentile in xwOBA and 71st percentile in chase rate and is doing so with a high dose of four-seam fastballs. He already has at least five strikeouts in three of his four starts this season and today, he gets a Royals offense that ranks second-worst by run value/100 in MLB against four-seamers this season and has the seventh-worst contact rate on pitches outside the zone. Mahle should be able to pound fastballs to get ahead in counts and finish off hitters via the chase.
Looking for a new sportsbook? Why not check out WynnBET, where you can bet $100 and immediately secure $100 in bonus bets. Click here to sign up for WynnBET right now.
Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.
