Ahaan Rungta
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We are set for another full day of MLB action on Wednesday with some cheeky spots for betting value. Here are my best player prop bets for Wednesday, April 19.
These props have the best odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook, and if you sign up right now, then you can bet $5 and secure $150 in bonus bets if your team wins! Head over to DraftKings now by clicking this link.
Jake Woodford 2+ strikeouts & Cardinals ML (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1U wager.
The St. Louis Cardinals are 7-11 this season and dead last in a division they were favored to win. They are looking to avoid the sweep against a rebuilding Arizona Diamondbacks team and luckily for them, they are facing one of the worst southpaw pitchers in today’s game, Madison Bumgarner.
This season, Bumgarner has posted a 7.07 xFIP, allowed a 40.0% HardHit rate, and has walked more hitters than he has struck out. His primary pitch of choice for strikes (41.5% usage rate) is a cutter, but the Cardinals are the #9 offense by run value/100 against cut fastballs this season. Cardinals starter Jake Woodford has also struggled a bit with results but he has posted a more serviceable 4.67 xFIP. Although the Diamondbacks offense has not been heavily strikeout-prone this season, an ask of 2 strikeouts should not be this price.
Woodford has at least 3 strikeouts in all of his starts this season and relies on whiffs via his 4-seam fastball and sweeper (a type of slider). This season, Arizona’s offense ranks 15th in run value/100 against 4-seamers and 29th against sliders. It’s even more reassuring that Arizona’s lineup today contains 3 of their highest-K% bats against right-handed pitchers in Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo and Jose Herrera.
Expect St. Louis to get a lead at some point in this starting pitcher battle. Looking to end a losing streak, I expect St. Louis’ top-ranked-xFIP bullpen to step up in this game and hold that lead.
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Martin Perez (TEX) under 2.5 earned runs (+100)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 0.5U wager.
The Rangers are rolling right now, winning 3 straight games and sitting atop a tough AL West division. Today, they will look for the sweep against the Royals, who have posted a 54 wRC+ (dead-last) and 31.9% strikeout rate (highest) against left-handed pitchers this season. Texas will send out southpaw Martin Perez to the mound. This season he has posted a 4.01 xFIP and despite falling prey to some bad luck with his .349 BABIP, he has not yet had a start allowing 3 or more earned runs.
Perez’s primary putaway weapon this season has been the changeup and the Royals offense ranks 27th in run value/100 against that pitch. Expect this tough stretch of hitting for the Kansas City offense to continue. If Perez runs into any trouble, it’s noteworthy that the high-leverage arms in the Rangers bullpen are well-rested after Nathan Eovaldi went 6 innings in his start last night in Texas’ 12-2 blowout win. That means Perez shouldn’t have to labor through many jams even if he creates some deep into the game, so this a great prop at its price.
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