Best MLB player prop bet today 9/11: Joe Musgrove struggles against division rival

Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief writeups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!

I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 190 wins and 137 losses for a gain of +33.9 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite play for Sunday.

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Joe Musgrove (Padres) over 2.5 earned runs (+105)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.

Joe Musgrove was one of the best pitchers in baseball before the all-star break. He had early considerations for NL CY Young as he had a below 3.00 ERA every month from April to June. Fast forward to today. Musgrove had a 4.24 ERA in August and allowed 4 runs to the Arizona Diamondbacks in his first start in September.

It does not get any less difficult today as Musgrove and the Padres host the top team in the majors, the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers are crushing right-handed pitching. In the last month, they are slugging at the 2nd-highest rate and have a top 5 on-base percentage. Plenty of the Dodgers hitters have good splits against Musgrove. Freddie Freeman is a career 6-for-18 against him with 1 home run and 3 runs batted in. Justin Turner will look to stay hot as he is hitting .370 in September. In his career against Musgrove, he is 5 for 12 with 2 home runs.

Musgrove has struggled against elite competition this season. The Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets and the Dodgers have all recorded at least 3 runs against Musgrove. He has gone over this line in 6 of his last 10 starts and I expect him to struggle early today.

Be sure to check out our Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres predictions

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