JutPicks
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Pickswise was nice enough to give me the opportunity to write up my plays for you all. For those of you who don’t know me, they refer to me as JutPicks on Twitter. I post all my plays with brief writeups every day. Now I get to write even more with no character limit!
I pride myself on being as transparent as they come. My MLB record from last season and this season is listed in my bio. On the year, I’ve recorded 155 wins and 105 losses for a gain of +37.67 units. Without further ado, let’s dive into my favorite play for Friday.
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Robbie Ray (SEA) over 18.5 outs (+110)
Line available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
It’s no secret that Ray has not been good as of late. In his last 2 starts, he’s failed to reach the 4th inning. Both of those games came against the Houston Astros, who are hitting left-handed pitching at a top-10 rate in the last month. His opponent tonight gets much easier. Ray and the Mariners will host the woeful Los Angeles Angels.
Let’s start with the Angels against lefties. They’re simply the worst team in the majors against southpaws. Their average is down to .190 with a slugging percentage below .300 over the last 30 days. Both rank in the bottom 3 against lefties during that span.
Ray has already diced up this Angels team this season. He pitched 7 innings and allowed 1 run across 3 hits. This started a nice stretch for Ray. He allowed less than 2 runs in 4 straight after that performance against Los Angeles.
The Mariners brought in Ray to be their guy. They’re in the midst of a playoff push and need to instill confidence into Ray. Letting him pitch deep in this game is just what Ray needs to get back on track. He’s pitched at least 6 innings at home in 9 of 11 starts and has gone into the 7th in 5 of those. You couldn’t ask for a better opponent for Ray after 2 pitiful starts. Expect last season’s AL CY Young award winner to bounce back tonight.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners
Texas Rangers under 1.5 runs- 1st 5 Innings (-125)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
We tend to target these team total 1.5 lines often. For the most part, it’s because of a poor offense going against one of the league’s top pitchers. This meets the criteria. The Texas Rangers will host the Chicago White Sox, who will have AL CY Young candidate Dylan Cease on the mound.
Cease has been spectacular this season. He has an ERA of just over 2 which is 3rd-best among qualifying pitchers. In the first 5 innings, he’s even more dominant. He’s held his opponents to less than 2 runs in 16 of 21 starts.
The Rangers have been one of the league’s most disappointing teams this season. They’re 11 games under .500 and surprised people at the deadline by not selling. Newcomer Corey Seager is hitting at career-low numbers and Marcus Siemen has only hit 15 home runs after hitting 45 for the Toronto Blue Jays last season. The Rangers as a team rank in the bottom half of the majors in all major hitting categories.
Texas will have its hands full against Cease and his 1.3 road ERA. Expect another CY Young performance from the 26-year-old.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Texas Rangers vs Chicago White Sox
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