Javan Shouey
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For the last 12 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging. Read below to see what prop(s) I am eyeing up on Thursday’s MLB slate.
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Joe Musgrove (SD) to record a win: yes (+115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Joe Musgrove is in the midst of a career season. The legitimate all-star starter and early-season Cy Young candidate has some of the most impressive advanced metrics you will find. His 1.50 ERA is 2nd-best in baseball, and is supported by his 91st percentile xERA. His barrel% is 87th percentile and his average exit velocity is 90th percentile so he isn’t being hit hard. He also isn’t allowing free base runners with just a 5.7% BB%. Musgrove has a WHIP of 0.93 which sits 7th best in baseball.
Weather is a massive part of today’s game. There are strong hitting conditions with hot temperatures and wind blowing out, but Musgrove has the clear pitching advantage over Matt Swarmer, especially factoring in the conditions. Musgrove is a ground ball pitcher who keeps the ball down in the zone. He has a fly ball rate that is 3.3% below league average which pairs nicely with his low barrel rate. Swarmer has only thrown 268 major league pitches but has a 16% barrel rate (9.3% higher than league average) and his fly ball rate is 15.1% higher than league average.
To record a win, Musgrove needs 5+ innings of work and to leave the game with a lead that isn’t squandered. He has thrown 6+ innings of work in each start this season while 2 or fewer runs in all of them. He is 7-0 on the season in the W/L department and San Diego is 10-1 in his starts. Strong bullpen advantage for the Padres and the Cubs have only received more than 5 innings from their starter in 1 of the last 7 games. Musgrove has allowed 4 home runs all season in 1060 pitches. Swarmer has allowed 9 in 268 pitches including 6 in his last start alone. I love this play at plus money.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs
Zack Wheeler (PHI) 5+ strikeouts/Phillies ML (-115)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook and BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I find it funny how trends build in baseball. A struggling or successful bat can prove contagious for the whole lineup and the same can be said for relievers. I love when two trends align such as today.
Washington has lost 11 of their last 16 contests including getting swept in their last series by a combined margin of 27-11 vs the Braves. While Atlanta is hot, so are the Phillies. Philadelphia has won 11/13 games in the month of June including an electric walk-off win last night.
Nationals are just 3-10 in Patrick Corbin starts and now face Philadelphia who mashes LHP. Corbin has been dismal since signing his new deal and is having a career-worst season. 7th percentile or worse in xERA, xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA, while ranking 20th percentile or worse in barrel%, hard-hit%, and average exit velocity. He doesn’t draw chases or whiffs and is prone to walk batters. Phillies rank 6th best in BB%, 5th in SLG, 4th in OPS, and 4th in ISO vs LHP this season. Overall in June they have a 142 wRC+ and .237 ISO.
I love that Zack Wheeler has gone 6 or more innings in 34/43 starts the last two seasons including 7 of his last 8. He should go longer into the game than Corbin and perform better given his elite expected data. Wheeler has racked up 5 or more Ks in 38/43 starts the last two years including 7 or more in each of his last 8 starts. While Washington isn’t a prime K target, rookie Spencer Strider had 11 Ks last night and 7 of the last 11 RHP have 5+ Ks vs the Nationals. Wheeler averages just 12.97 pitches/K and has thrown 97+ pitches in 5 straight starts.
While neither bullpen is very good, Phillies have seen 21 IP from their last 3 starters so their bullpen should be relatively rested. I look for the Phillies to win their 8th straight game vs their divisional foe tonight.
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