Javan Shouey
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We have been spoiled today with a 16-game MLB slate thanks to the Pirates vs Nationals game being rained out yesterday. With so many games on tap there are several angles worth approaching in the betting markets, but my focus is set on Logan Gilbert in his matchup against the St. Louis Cardinals. Let’s dive in!
Logan Gilbert (SEA) over 5.5 strikeouts recorded (-125)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.
The St. Louis Cardinals are not a team I often look to bet against in the strikeout department, as they are generally a lower strikeout rate team, but today’s price on Logan Gilbert’s strikeout prop is showing some value on the over. Gilbert is in the midst of a career-best season, posting his best marks in ERA, xERA, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, GB%, WHIP, and K-BB%. The right-hander has been the team’s best pitcher on a staff that has several dominant arms, and he will look to continue his success in this matchup against the Cardinals. In terms of strikeouts, Gilbert ranks 9th in baseball with his 181 punch outs, and his ability to work deep into games has helped him earn 6 or more strikeouts in 21 of his 28 starts made. This includes each of his last 6 outings and 10 of his last 11 trips to the mound overall. His only time staying under that mark was a 4-strikeout performance at Boston against a tough Red Sox lineup.
On the season Gilbert ranks 88th percentile in swinging strike rate, showcasing his ability to generate whiffs with regularity. He is also able to draw batters outside the zone often with his 65th percentile chase rate. Having 5 pitches with at least 10.7% usage is beneficial to Gilbert as he can keep either handedness of hitter off balance and switch sequencing up as the game progresses. He generates 3rd strikes with each of these pitches and anytime he receives a 5.5 prop I am intrigued. The Cardinas are admittedly not the easiest target in the league, posting a sub-20% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since August 1st, but they haven’t faced many strikeout artists on Gilbert’s level. I expect 6 or more punch outs in this game from Seattle’s starting pitcher and would play this to -135 odds.
