Javan Shouey
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The Chicago White Sox set the record for the most regular season losses of any team in the modern era while the Detroit Tigers clinched their first playoff berth since 2014 in yesterday’s 4-1 Tigers victory. I am going back to that series for today’s matchup as young right-hander Sean Burke gets to take on a Detroit lineup that likely had a long celebratory night. With Burke’s strikeout prowess and the potential for a weak lineup, I see very solid value on Burke over 4.5 strikeouts in this game.
Let’s dive in!
Sean Burke (CWS) over 4.5 strikeouts recorded (-120)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds. Risking 1u.
The Detroit Tigers were 55-63 at one point this season, leading to them selling some key contributors at the trade deadline. The team is 31-11 since that low point in the year, and they have clinched a playoff berth for the first time since 2014 with their win against the White Sox last night. When you don’t make the playoffs as an organization for an entire decade, and then you accomplish it in such improbable fashion, there is reason to celebrate. Video evidence suggests the Tigers clubhouse did just that, and there is a decent chance we see a somewhat weakened lineup for Detroit Saturday afternoon. The Tigers success has been based on their strong bullpen play and their starting pitching, but their lineup has not been an overly consistent or dominant unit for them this season. One area they have been weak is the strikeout department, and despite a 108 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days the Tigers still have the 8th highest strikeout rate in that sample at 25.1%. Now with the potential for some strikeout candidates to enter the lineup I am looking to fade their bats today.
Not only is it a favorable scheduling spot for the opposing starting pitcher in this situation, but the pitcher starting for the White Sox today appears to have some very intriguing talent when it comes to the strikeout department. Sean Burke tossed 64.1 innings with the organization’s triple-A affiliate this season, earning 86 strikeouts in that span with 5 or more in each of his last 7 outings at that level. His first MLB appearance was out of the bullpen, tossing 53 pitches across 3 innings with 3 strikeouts against a low-strikeout rate Guardians offense. He then made a start against Oakland, earning 5 strikeouts in 5 innings spanning 85 pitches. His last start resulted in 6 innings across 87 pitches with 8 strikeouts against a very strikeout-averse Padres lineup. With a swinging strike rate of 11.3%, 14.1%, and 16.1% in his 3 outings so far, I have been impressed by Burke’s numbers. He has 3 offerings that can generate whiffs, and his 90th percentile extension gives hitters less time to react than the average pitcher. I like this spot for over 4.5 strikeouts and would suggest looking into his alternate lines to perhaps grab a piece of his ceiling outcomes.
