Javan Shouey
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We have a full 15-game MLB slate to sink our teeth into on Wednesday as just a handful of games remain in the 2024 season. Teams continue to battle it out for a place in the Wild Card round while the Orioles and Yankees continue their fight for the AL East crown. Baltimore scored a 5-3 victory at Yankee Stadium last night to keep their faint hopes alive, and tonight they’ll turn to Zach Eflin with his mission to take down New York once again. My best MLB player prop bet comes from that matchup, while you can also find out our MLB picks for today’s big games.
Zach Eflin (BAL) under 1.5 walks allowed (+110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110 odds. Risking 1u.
Zach Eflin was traded within the AL East at the trade deadline this season, being shipped to Baltimore from the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays realized where their season was headed and decided to shift course by trading away several veteran pieces. Eflin is now a key part of the Orioles’ pitching staff, and his performance will likely go a long way in deciding how far the team is able to go. Through his first 8 starts with Baltimore, Eflin’s form has been sharp. The right-hander has allowed no more than 3 earned runs in any outing with 2 or fewer surrendered in 6 of those 8 starts. Eflin also hasn’t walked more than 1 batter in any of those starts, and his 50.2 innings with the club so far have resulted in just 6 walks allowed in total.
Eflin’s command has been his signature calling card this season, ranking in the 99th percentile among MLB pitchers with his low 2.9% walk rate. He has above-average marks in terms of first-pitch strike rate and overall zone rate, but he also thrives on generating chases on pitches located outside the strike zone. This combination of being able to win both in and out of the zone makes it hard for opponents to draw ball 4 with regularity. His matchup today is possibly the toughest in MLB when it comes to avoiding walks, but the plus-money price we are getting more than makes up for it in my opinion. On July 19, Eflin did walk 4 Yankees, but that was his 2nd consecutive start against this patient lineup, and it was a tough scheduling spot for the right-hander. His other 2 starts against New York this season combined for just 1 walk allowed total. Given that Eflin hasn’t gone over this line in any of his 8 starts for the Orioles, I love that we’re getting this at plus-money odds.
