Javan Shouey
Show Bio
Both Paul Skenes and Shota Imanaga have had very strong debut seasons in MLB, and with their seasons winding down I am looking to combine their efforts for today’s top player prop look.
Let’s dive in!
Paul Skenes (PIT) 6+ strikeouts recorded / Shota Imanaga (CHC) u1.5 walks allowed (-103)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.
Paul Skenes ranks 86th percentile or better this season in barrel rate, ground ball rate, strikeout rate, expected batting average, and expected earned run average. The number 1 overall draft selection in the 2023 draft has tossed 126 innings so far at the major league level and has maintained a 2.07 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in that span. His 32.2% strikeout rate has resulted in at least 6 strikeouts recorded in 19 of his 21 starts this season including each of his last 7. Skenes has faced this Cincinnati Reds lineup twice so far this season, recording 6 innings of work in each outing while recording 7 and 9 strikeouts and allowing just 1 combined earned run. The Reds have shown better plate discipline of late but still feature several strikeout candidates in their everyday lineup. With Skenes elite abilities and his success in this matchup already, I feel confident that he will record 6 or more strikeouts once again and bolster his case for the National League rookie of the year award.
As for Shota Imanaga, the southpaw hurler for the Cubs has also been extremely successful in his rookie campaign. He is 9 years older than Skenes as his craft was finely tuned in Japan before signing with Chicago this most recent offseason. His 28 starts have spanned 166.1 innings of work while accruing a 14-3 record thanks to a 3.03 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. The left-hander ranks 97th percentile in chase rate this season and that is a big reason I am betting on him today. His ability to draw opponents outside of the zone on chases has resulted in a dazzling 4.2% walk rate, ranking 96th percentile among all MLB pitchers. He faces the Washington Nationals today, and coincidently no MLB team has a lower walk rate against left-handed pitching across the last 30 days than the Nationals at just 5.2%. Washington is an aggressive team that ranks low in pitches seen per plate appearance this season, and their late-season lineup features several young bats that have very little experience. Imanaga did face this Nationals lineup 4 starts ago, walking just 1 batter in his 6 innings of work while striking out 8 batters along the way.
