Javan Shouey
Show Bio
The 2024 MLB regular season is winding down and the results of the final games are crucial for several teams around the league. As far as player props on today’s slate of action my focus is on the matchup between the Los Angeles Angels lineup and Ronel Blanco of the Houston Astros.
Let’s dive in!
Ronel Blanco (HOU) Under 6.5 strikeouts (-140)
Odds available at time of publishing. Playable to -150 odds.
Ronel Blanco has made 27 starts and 28 total appearances this season and remained under 6.5 strikeouts recorded in all but 7 games. This includes his matchup with the Los Angeles Angels just 6 days ago, recording 5 strikeouts in 6.0 innings of work. He is now tasked with a close proximity rematch against the same lineup, and I am looking for the Angels to make some contact as a result. Los Angeles is not a very good lineup, ranking just 24th in wOBA with an 88 wRC+ against right-handed pitching across the last 30 days. The Halos also have the 5th highest strikeout rate in that sample. Still, a 6.5 total for Blanco is a bit high in most matchups and with the circumstances at hand I believe this is one of those matchups.
Despite their poor plate discipline overall, Los Angeles has held 5 of the last 6 right-handed starters it has seen under 6.5 strikeouts, and 13 of the last 16. Blanco can struggle with his command of the strike zone at times, ranking just 22nd percentile with his 10.2% walk rate on the season. He also allows too many barreled balls for my liking with his 24th percentile mark. That combination could result in a poor outing in any given start — but even if he pitches well, 6.5 is a hefty total for the right-hander. Houston has several available relievers for this game and with its reliance on Blanco it will need him fresh for postseason play. With everything is considered I have a strong lean towards the under on Blanco’s strikeout total in this spot.
