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2023 All-Star Michael Lorenzen finally gets to play in competitive baseball games after being acquired by the Phillies at the trade deadline. He was sensational in his first start with his new club and now gets his first taste of baseball in Philadelphia behind the Philly faithful. He headlines our top MLB player prop bet of the day, but be sure to also check out our MLB predictions today!
Michael Lorenzen (PHI) 3+ strikeouts/Phillies ML (-115)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
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The good old stingy Washington Nationals. They split the doubleheader last night after Craig Kimbrel gave up a run in the 9th inning. Luckily for the Phillies, other NL wild-card teams are struggling. The Giants, currently the top-seeded wild card team, dropped two games to the Athletics over the weekend and lost last night to the Los Angeles Angels. The Marlins, Diamondbacks and Reds all have struggled mightily since the all-star break. Against a selling team like the Nationals, this is the perfect opportunity for Lorenzen to lift the Phillies rotation and keep a 3-game lead in the wild-card standings.
We’re buying this line down for a handful of reasons. Firstly, Lorenzen isn’t a strikeout pitcher. He ranks in the 23rd percentile in K% and has a 41% groundball rate. He’s known to eat up innings fast as he’s gone at least 6 innings in 11 of 19 starts including 8 innings and 5 K’s in his Phillies debut. MLB prop bettors know how tough it is to strikeout Nationals hitters but since the calendar turned to August, they rank right in the middle of the league in K rate to RHP — a small sample size but a good way to attack the selling Nationals. Lorenzen has had at least 3 K’s in 18 of 19 starts. Yes, you read that correctly. Expect the Phillies crowd to be rocking for his debut.
With all that being said, we need the Phillies to win. MacKenzie Gore will get the ball for the Nationals and make his 3rd start against the Phillies this season. That’s tough on its own. He was crushed in his last start in Philadelphia as he allowed 7 runs and didn’t make it out of the 3rd inning. This Phillies lineup is loaded with talent and sat multiple guys in the 2nd game of the doubleheader to have them ready for tonight. Give me the better pitcher and lineup at home against one of the worst teams in all of baseball.
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