Javan Shouey
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Justin Verlander makes his way back from injury with a difficult matchup against the Boston Red Sox, while Logan Webb will look to continue his strong stretch with an advantageous matchup at home against the White Sox. Today, my best MLB player prop bets target both of these pitchers in the form of an MLB parlay, so let’s dive in! Plus, make sure you find out our MLB picks for the matchups on Wednesday, August 21.
Justin Verlander (HOU) under 5.5 strikeouts + Logan Webb (SFG) over 4.5 strikeouts (+100)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -110 odds. Risking 1u.
Justin Verlander last pitched in an MLB game on June 9 against the Los Angeles Angels, allowing 4 earned runs while recording just 3 strikeouts in 5 innings of work. On the season, Verlander has tossed 57 innings, recording 51 strikeouts while staying under the 4.5 mark in 6 of 10 starts made. Today we get a 5.5 line in his return to the majors and I am looking to fade that mark for a few reasons. Even when healthy, Verlander ranked in just the 25th percentile in whiff rate, 27th percentile in chase rate and 26th percentile in CSW%. These subpar marks are not what Verlander has been accustomed to throughout his Hall-of-Fame career, and it is clear that the veteran righty has taken a step back in the strikeout department.
Verlander made just 2 rehab outings at the minor league level, tossing 52 and 57 pitches while facing 12 and 17 batters respectively in those starts. He did record 8 strikeouts in those 7 innings of work, but the workload is where my main focus is. Verlander averages 18.86 pitches per strikeout recorded at the MLB level this season, and we likely don’t see him even reach 80 pitches in this spot. Manager Joe Espada said, “I don’t want to put a number because he can surprise us. But we’re going to keep a close eye on his workload, for sure.” If the veteran is cruising through his start, we could see 5 or 6 innings, but with workload concerns and a tough matchup, there is quite a bit of value here in my eyes. Boston can strike out at the plate, but they have also been dominant against right-handed pitching since the all-star break, ranking 3rd in wOBA with a 130 wRC+.
Read our full Boston Red Sox vs Houston Astros prediction
As for the White Sox vs Giants game, Logan Webb will make his 27th start of the season for San Francisco today, and the right-hander has been dominant across his last 4 trips to the mound. Webb has allowed just 2 combined runs across that 29.1-inning sample, recording 6 or more strikeouts in 3 of those outings with his only miss being on the road. Logan has consistently been a better performer when in his home park, and this season has been no different with a 2.26 ERA through 83.2 innings. Webb is not a strikeout artist by nature, but his ability to work deep into games gives him one of the steadier floors in baseball. His outs recorded prop for today’s game is set at 20.5 with heavy juice towards the over, implying he works 7 innings in this game. Webb has done so in more than half of his starts this season, and now he draws a favorable matchup against this White Sox lineup.
Webb has recorded 5 or more strikeouts in 18 of his 26 starts this season, including 9 of his 12 starts at home. One area he excels is generating chases on pitches located outside the strike zone. This induces ground balls and weak contact, but also contributes to the strikeouts he earns. His sinker, changeup, sweeper approach is extremely horizontal, and he generates quite a few looking strikes as a result of his deception. Webb is elite at earning called strikes on backdoor 2-seamers and that helps him get ahead in counts and ultimately sit down the opposition. Since the all-star break, the White Sox have the league’s 2nd-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching at 25.3%. In that timespan, they have the highest chase rate in baseball and the 6th-lowest in-zone contact rate when strikes are thrown. There are several pieces of Chicago’s lineup that Webb can take advantage of, especially considering he is likely to see them each 3 times through the order.
Read our full Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants prediction
