Javan Shouey
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The season is winding down and the Cardinals are 4 games back from the final wild-card spit in the National League. They will need Sonny Gray to bounce back from his last start with a strong outing against a tough Dodgers lineup if they want to make up ground in the standings.
Our player prop bet for today involves this matchup, so let’s dive in!
Sonny Gray (STL) Over 5.5 strikeouts (-131)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -145 odds. Risking 1u.
Sonny Gray began the season very well from a run prevention standpoint, allowing just 3 combined earned runs in his first 5 starts with the Cardinals. He allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in 10 of his first 14 starts but has since allowed 3 or more in 6 of his last 8 including 3 home runs against the Reds last time out. Within that 8-start span, Gray faced the Nationals, Reds, and Cubs each twice, while also facing the Rays and Braves. His issues in that stretch cannot all be attributed to several close proximity rematches, but it certainly didn’t help his numbers to face those lineups a second time. Gray will now run into the Dodgers, and while Los Angeles has several lethal aspects to their lineup, they have been strikeout prone against right-handed pitching since the all-star break.
The Dodgers have the ninth-highest strikeout rate against righties since July 19 at 24.7%, and today they could be without Freddie Freeman who is listed day-to-day with a finger ailment. Even since Gray has started allowing more runs to the opposition, his strikeout numbers have continued to be strong. In his last 8 starts Gray has still recorded 6 or more strikeouts each time he took the mound, and the right-hander has accrued 6 or more in 19 of his 22 starts all season. He has recorded 162 strikeouts in 130.2 innings so far this season and his success in that department is accompanied by a 12.9% swinging strike rate. That mark ranks 73rd percentile among MLB pitchers, but in his last 5 starts he has reached a 15.6% SwStr% or higher 4 times. Since the all-star break the Dodgers have the 6th highest SwStr% and 3rd worst in-zone contact rate at the plate.
Los Angeles showcased its poor contact rates in its last game against a right-hander, striking out 7 times by Miles Mikolas on Friday. Mikolas is not a strikeout pitcher by any means, and even if Gray allows a handful of runs today there is room for him to record 6 or more strikeouts. He boasts a dominant 32.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hitters this season, but even if the Dodgers stack their lineup with lefties Gray has a 28.9% K% against them. He uses 6 pitches with 5 of them receiving 15.6% usage or higher, and that diversification can help get any type of hitter out. Gray has solid numbers against several pieces of today’s possible lineup including Mookie Betts. Adam Hamari can be inconsistent behind the plate, but he tends to have a wide zone which could help get Gray ahead in counts.
