Javan Shouey
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For the last 14 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and I’m more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.
Read below to see the props I am eyeing up on Thursday’s MLB slate.
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Anibal Sanchez (WAS) under 15.5 outs recorded (-130)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
This is a very tough spot for Washington Nationals starting pitcher Anibal Sanchez. The 38-year-old right-hander just faced this Padres lineup in his last start and is now asked to face them again just 5 days later. San Diego got to Sanchez in that game as he pitched 5 innings with 6 hits, 3 walks, 2 home runs, and 3 earned runs allowed. Sanchez has now made only 6 starts on the season, going under this 15.5 line in 5 of them. The veteran journeyman has allowed at least 3 earned runs in each start. He struggles to strikeout batters with just a 16.3% K% and he walks batters at a 10.4% clip. Sanchez allows fly balls 11.7% more than league average, allows a solid contact% nearly double league average, and has an 8.2%-barrel rate.
Sanchez throws first-pitch strikes 4.4% less than league average and is in the zone with his pitches 5% less than average. The Padres have the 9th lowest chase rate this season. These numbers are improving with disciplined bats in Juan Soto and Josh Bell now in the lineup. Sanchez averages 4.27 pitches per batter faced which would rank 3rd worst in MLB if he qualified. San Diego averages the 5th most pitches per PA as a team this season. In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching the Padres have been on fire. During that span they rank 3rd in wOBA, 5th in ISO, 4th in OPS, and 2nd in BB%. Their 127 wRC+ ranks 3rd best as well.
Of the last 19 right-handed starters to face San Diego, 16 of them have been held to 5 or fewer IP. The Nationals have received 6 IP from 3 consecutive starters for the first time seemingly all season. The bullpen is about as rested as they get, and Washington shouldn’t need to overextend Sanchez tonight.
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