Javan Shouey
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For the last 14 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.
Read below to see the props I am eyeing up on Monday’s MLB slate.
Joe Ryan (MIN) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable at current price of -120 as well.
This Royals team is not one I am actively searching out to fade, but things keep lining up. Today I am looking to back Twins rookie Joe Ryan. I believe we are getting a very advantageous line given two of his last three starts being horrendous. Well, those starts came against the new-look Padres and the red-hot Dodgers. They were also on the road.
Ryan has put together a tremendous debut season for Minnesota, posting an 8-3 record with an ERA below 4.00 and a 1.13 WHIP. His expected stats back up his success, as well. Ryan ranks 65th percentile in xERA, 68th percentile in BB% and 75th percentile in xBA. His xSLG, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are all above average. He gets out of jams with an above average K%, tons of weak contact and a pop-up rate that is more than double league average. Ryan utilizes his four-seam fastball for nearly 60% of his pitches, and while that isn’t ideal in my eyes he has a great fastball. Only 91.8 MPH, his fastball still allows an xBA of just .187 with a -11 run value. While the speed on that pitch won’t blow you away on its own, his other pitches range 8-18 MPH slower — which helps to keep batters off balance. He throws first-pitch strikes at a 65.7% clip. When ahead in counts, Ryan’s main three pitches have xBA’s of .181, .202 and .192.
Ryan has been fantastic at home this season with a 2.92 ERA, .184 OBA and WHIP of 0.97. He has allowed only five home runs in 49.1 innings at home. This season Ryan has allowed two or fewer earned runs in 12 of 18 starts — including both outings against this Royals team. In those two starts his combined stat line is 11.2 innings, 7 hits, 3 walks, 11 strikeouts and 1 earned run. That’s pretty solid.
In the last 30 days against right-handed pitching the Royals have a wRC+ of 92 while ranking 21st in wOBA, 20th in OPS and 24th in BB%. Sixteen of the last 25 right-handed starters to face Kansas City have allowed fewer than 3 earned runs and I expect that to continue today with a nice bounce-back performance from Ryan.
Freddy Peralta (MIL) under 5.5 strikeouts (-112)
Odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
Freddy Peralta is not typically someone I aim to fade when it comes to striking out batters. The 26-year-old right-hander averages 1.21 strikeouts per inning pitched and has a 28.3 K% overall on the year. That being said, there are numerous angles in this matchup to make be believe we are receiving a generous price.
Peralta allowed 5 earned runs in 3.0 innings of work against the Nationals on May 22. Following that game he was placed on the 60-day IL with a lat injury. In his two starts since returning to the rotation Peralta has thrown only 67 and 65 pitches. Those starts have resulted in a strikeout every 18.86 pitches, a far cry from his 14.61 rate for the season. He faced Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay in those two starts, two very strikeout prone offenses against right-handed pitching. He now draws a matchup against the Dodgers, who have the 3rd lowest K% against right-handed pitching in the last 30 days. During that span Los Angeles ranks best in MLB in OPS, ISO and wOBA in addition to boasting a wRC+ of 137. Peralta’s last start saw his lowest average fastball speed of the season at just 91.7 MPH. That is extremely worrisome for someone who throws that pitch over 55% of the time.
Even when healthy, Peralta isn’t the most efficient pitcher. His 4.19 pitches per plate appearance would rank 4th highest in baseball if he has enough innings to qualify. Last season he ranked 17th highest in that category. At home this season, Peralta has struggled mightily. His home ERA of 6.26 is far worse than his 2.59 road ERA. Right-handed batters are hitting .271 against Peralta this season and Los Angeles has plenty of them that are able to do damage. Of the last 22 right-handed non-opener starting pitchers to face the Dodgers, 17 have been held under this 5.5 number. I have yet to see whether or not Peralta will see a significant increase to his pitch count, but if we get the news we want this number will be long gone. With a rested bullpen behind him and a daunting matchup ahead of him, I find this play to be well worth the risk.
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