Javan Shouey
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For the last 14 months I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.
Read below to see the props I am eyeing up on Saturday’s MLB slate.
Andrew Heaney (LAD) under 2.5 earned runs allowed (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.
I will begin with the worries that this play has. The weather for this game will provide one of the better hitting environments on today’s slate. With temperatures well into the 90s and wind blowing out, this play has an additional element of concern. I will also point out that Kansas City has hit much better against left-handed pitching in the last month. While they have the league’s 2nd-highest AVG against left-handers in that stretch, I see signs of regression. They have the league’s 2nd-highest BABIP during that span at .346. Their season-long BABIP against left-handers is .293 and they should regress closer to that number soon given the subtractions of contact hitters in Andrew Benintendi and Whit Merrifield. It isn’t like they are hitting the ball extremely hard either, ranking just 18th in isolated power and hard-hit rate in the last 30 days. I like the young core they have in Bobby Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino, MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto, but they are still young and inconsistent as a whole. Despite their solid numbers they have still failed to score 3 or more earned runs off 3 of the last 4 left-handed starters they have faced.
Andrew Heaney has been exactly what the Dodgers needed following numerous injuries and off-field issues with members of their starting rotation. The 31-year-old former 9th overall pick has pitched just 28 innings across his 6 starts this season but that is something I like about this play. Heaney has been sporadically used with 2 starts in April, 1 start in June, 1 start in July and now 2 in August entering this game. His leash hasn’t been very long with an average of just 75.33 pitches in his 3 starts since returning to the team. Los Angeles received a fantastic outing from Tony Gonsolin last night which saved their key bullpen arms. With a rested and fully capable unit backing up Heaney, there should be no need to pitch him more than 4 or 5 innings. In his 6 starts this season he has surpassed 5 innings of work just once. I find it curious that his earned runs would be listed at 2.5 with reasonable juice to the under when the Royals’ first 5 innings team total is 1.5 with only even money to the under. I find that separation to be intriguing, particularly given how Heaney has pitched this season.
The left-hander has posted an unsustainable but impressive 0.64 ERA this season with a steady WHIP of 1.00. His xERA is higher than his current ERA but is still an impressive 2.64. Heaney has an xBA of .187 which sits .058 better than league average. His xSLG is also fantastic at .280 and he is striking out batters at a 31.6% clip. His 1.32 K/IP is something he can hang his hat on as batters are chasing out of the zone on his pitches 5.6% more than average but connecting 18.4% less than average. He throws first-pitch strikes to 65.8% of his batters faced and when ahead in counts uses his slider 47.5% of the time with a 52.5% whiff rate and .090 xBA in that scenario (66 pitches). Heaney has held his opponents under 2.5 earned runs in each of his 6 starts this season and I am willing to bet on him do perform well.
Check out tonight’s Yankees vs Red Sox same game parlay!
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