Javan Shouey
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Saturday’s MLB slate is packed with action, featuring early afternoon games, late night games on the west coast, and even a doubleheader between the Braves and Mets. With 16 games to break down, there are plenty of betting opportunities on today’s slate. The play that stood out to me this morning the most was a prop regarding the talented Red Sox pitcher Brayan Bello, let’s dive in!
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Brayan Bello (Red Sox) over 17.5 outs recorded (-135)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140.
The Boston Red Sox enter this game as winners in 4 of their last 5 games, but with those wins has come heavy bullpen usage. Kenley Jansen, John Schreiber, Chris Martin and Josh Winckowski all would be making their third appearance in 4 days with an entrance into today’s game. Even yesterday long-relief options in Chris Murphy (57 pitches) and Kyle Barraclough (23 pitches) were used. Boston has arms they can turn to, but with none being particularly fresh the Red Sox would love nothing more than Brayan Bello to work deep into today’s game. Working deep has been what Bello has done with consistency of late, reaching 6 or more innings of work in 10 of his last 11 starts overall. That includes 6 consecutive home starts. He has worked into the 7th inning 6 times in that 11-start span, completing the 7th frame on 4 occasions.
Bello does not have the league’s best batted-ball profile, allowing hard contact in just the 16th percentile. That being said, the right-hander does an amazing job keeping the ball on the ground, as his 2 main pitches, the sinker and changeup, are both primarily used at the bottom of the zone. His 56.6% ground-ball rate sits 11.9% above the league average and helps him to get out of jams with double plays and easy outs. Another aspect of Bello’s game worth appreciating this year is his reduced walk rate. This season Bello is issuing free passes just 6.6% of the time, down from his 10.1%-mark last year. His ranking this season sits 75th percentile as he jumps ahead with first-pitch strikes 64.2% of the time. The right-hander struggled against Oakland 4 starts ago, lasting only 66 pitches across 4 innings of work. His workload in other outings has been outstanding, however, averaging 98 pitches per start across the other 10 starts in his recent stretch. With Boston’s bullpen being relatively taxed and in need of distance from their starter, Bello should see his full leash today.
The Tigers are not an offense that strikes a ton of fear in opposing pitchers. Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter are solid players but not necessarily guys you need to pitch around, and Bello’s aggressiveness should serve him well in this matchup. The Tigers rarely draw walks, ranking 27th in BB% against RHP across the last 30 days and 29th in that category across the last 60. In those same last 30 days against right-handers, they have the 3rd-highest ground-ball rate and 6th-highest soft contact rate. Against right-handed sinkers this season the Tigers rank 29th in AVG, 28th in SLG, and have the league’s lowest wOBA. In the last 30 days they rank 28th in wOBA against RH sinkers. When facing right-handed changeups on the year they have the 9th-lowest wOBA. On the season the Tigers average just the league-average rate of pitches per PA, providing middling patience at the plate, while Bello is just below league-average with his 3.85 P/PA. No active Tigers bats have history against Bello, which should help the pitcher early on in the matchup.
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Cody Bellinger (Cubs) over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBI (-125) (to win 0.75U)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135.
Few players have started their careers faster than Cody Bellinger did, accruing a combined 17.4 WAR in his first 3 seasons with 111 home runs. Injuries and general poor play resulted in a disappointing final 3 seasons with the Dodgers, but this season the lefty bat has regained his form as one of the premier bats in the sport. The 28-year-old would rank as baseball’s 4th-highest batting average at .329 thanks to the torrid stretch he is on if he had enough PA to qualify. In July, Bellinger hit .400 with a .690 SLG across 100 AB, recording at least 1 hit in 22 of his 26 games played. His hot pace carried over into August where he is hitting .447 with a .737 SLG through his first 38 AB. That includes last night’s 2-hit performance with one of them leaving the yard for a home run.
Bellinger has severely cut down on his strikeout rate, posting a career-low 15.6% mark that ranks 87th percentile. He also has a below-average BB% for the second consecutive season so balls are being put in play with consistency. Bellinger has a .272 xBA this season that ranks in the 80th percentile. He is truly comfortable using all parts of the field and has done a better job this season of staying on the pitch and taking what is being offered. His steady approach has helped him produce against pitchers of either handedness, giving value to this prop even in the later stages against bullpen arms. Toronto will start Chris Bassitt, a right-hander, and I like this matchup for Bellinger. Bassitt is a unique arm who utilizes an 8-pitch mix with variations on some of those offerings. He does have drastic splits this season, however, and has been far worse against left-handed batters. LHB have posted a .278 AVG, .541 SLG, and .386 wOBA against Bassitt this season. Against those lefty bats Bassitt uses all 8 offerings, but his most leaned-on pitches are the sinker, cutter and 4-seam fastball. Bellinger is a terrific fastball hitter, especially right-handed sinkers. He has 10 hits against RH sinkers this season while holding a .357 average, and last season he hit .396 against RH sinkers.
Bellinger has been a fantastic situational hitter this season as well, hitting .293 with an OPS approaching .900 with runners in scoring position. With 2 other lefty bats and Nico Hoerner projected ahead of him in the order, Bellinger could be in prime positioning to drive in runs tonight. He is more than just a hitter too, and his 76th percentile sprint speed has helped him rack up 17 stolen bases and 66 runs scored. As a plus base runner, plus run producer, and plus batter against either handedness, this prop market is ideal for a player like Bellinger. He also gets the benefit of being on the road today, guaranteeing his team bats all 9 innings and increasing the likelihood of a 5th PA. Bellinger is over this 1.5 mark in 26 of his 40 road games this season and 57 of his 85 games overall. That includes clearing this mark in 10 of his last 11 games played. The Toronto bullpen is solid, but even if Bellinger doesn’t get things done against Bassitt, we are still alive in the later stages.
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