Ahaan Rungta
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It’s a thin 8-game MLB slate to choose from today but I’ve found a player to target with immense value. Without further ado let’s dive into my best player prop bet for today, but make sure you also check out our MLB picks for every matchup today.
Nolan Arenado (STL) over 1.5 total bases (+105)
Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing; recommended 1u wager.
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This hitter prop is my favorite on the board at plus-money odds and it checks all the boxes for the total bases market. The Rays will start right-handed pitcher Zack Littell in this interleague matchup. As a Tampa Bay Ray, Littell has posted a solid 3.39 xFIP but with zero walks, a .413 SLG and a 35.9% HardHit% allowed. Against right-handers, he has essentially been a two-pitch guy, throwing primarily four-seam fastballs and sliders.
Since the all-star break, Nolan Arenado has been hot, posting a low 3.7% walk rate but a scorching 143 wRC+ and .269 ISO against right-handed pitchers on the road. In that span, he has a team-leading 1.213 xSLG against right-handed four-seamers, making him the best threat in the stadium to crank a fastball in the zone. Although the right-handed slider has given him some trouble, posting a .278 xSLG in this sample, his whiff rate has been very low on that pitch, meaning a high dose of soft stuff from Littell and his mediocre slider doesn’t scare me all that much.
Arenado will once again be a top-of-the-order bat and will be on the road, so he is likely to get at least four plate appearances to secure a task he has the ability to accomplish with just one swing. Even if he can’t cash this prop in his at-bats against Littell, the Rays bullpen isn’t the powerhouse it once was; since the all-star break, they rank just middle-of-the-pack in HardHit% allowed to right-handed hitters. On Thursday, Tampa Bay will be short-handed with Kevin Kelly, Jalen Beeks and Shawn Armstrong all out of the picture due to heavy workloads on Wednesday. This Arenado prop has great value at plus-money odds.
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