Ahaan Rungta
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We have another all-day MLB slate today as we head into the final days of the regular season before the All-Star break and there is still value on the betting board outside of game lines. Here is my best player prop bet for the evening of Thursday, July 6, and you can also see all our MLB picks for today’s games.
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Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) under 1.5 walks allowed (-130)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing. Recommended 0.75u wager.
The Tampa Bay Rays are looking to avoid their first home sweep of the season and will face the young left-handed starting pitcher Cristopher Sánchez. Over the last 30 days, the Rays have just a 7.5% walk rate against left-handed pitching (#19 in MLB) and that number is still just 8.0% at home in that span.
Sánchez has only started 4 games this season but has stayed under this line in 3 of those games. His 70.3% strike rate overall ranks in the 73rd percentile among all MLB starters this season and although the Rays are likely to stack a lineup of fully right-handed bats, Sánchez’s walk rate dips to 1.8% BB% against right-handers.
It is noteworthy that he relies on a sky-high 20.6% called strike rate but a lot of that is working horizontally with his slider on the inside and outside, which should play right into the hands of home plate umpire Charlie Ramos, who has been heavily pitcher-friendly on that axis this season. The Phillies’ high-leverage bullpen arms are rested for this game, so the leash shouldn’t be very long for Sánchez if he gets into some trouble deep into this game. That makes this prop worth the juice and I have it as playable up to -150.
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