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With the trade deadline looming, teams are making that final push to determine if they’ll be buyers or sellers. MLB Friday has all 30 teams in action with Bobby Miller being our top MLB player prop bet.
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Bobby Miller (LAD) over 4.5 hits allowed (-130)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
They’re two ways to attack Bobby Miller against the Cincinnati Reds tonight. Either fade his strikeouts or his hits allowed. Both seem great to me. His K line seems a strikeout too high with heavy juice but so does his hits allowed prop. It’s pick your poison.
The Reds’ young and talented offense can get to Miller early with right-handed hitters Matt McLain and Jonathan India. In 2023, Miller is allowing righties to hit for an average of .255 and rarely walks them. He’s issued just 5 walks in 106 at-bats. The Reds will most likely have four righties in their lineup with Spencer Steer and Tyler Stephenson rounding it out.
After a strong start to the season where he allowed just 12 hits combined in his first 4 starts, it seems opponents have figured him out. In his last 5 starts, he’s allowed an average of 6 hits and 3.4 earned runs per start. It gets worse at home where he’ll be tonight. His home ERA jumps to 5.93 with an opponent’s batting average of .255. The Reds on the other hand are hitting RHP much better on the road in July. Away from home, they’re hitting .288 which ranks top 10 in baseball during that span. At home, they rank 19th. Whether its hits allowed or strikeouts, find a way to fade Bobby Miller tonight.
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