Javan Shouey
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For the last 13 months, I have shared my sports betting tips and plays on my Twitter page @shou_in. I am incredibly thankful for the platform Pickswise has now allowed me. I update my record in my Twitter bio daily and am more than willing to answer any questions or provide help through direct messaging.
Read below to see the prop(s) I am eyeing up on Monday’s MLB slate.
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Ranger Suarez (PHI) 4+ hits allowed/Braves ML (-130)
Odds available at DraftKings and BetMGM Sportsbooks at time of publishing. Playable at that number.
I really like this spot today for the Atlanta Braves but am not a fan of the ML price of around -190. A key reason I like Atlanta is that I believe they will have success against Phillies starter Ranger Suarez. By adding Ranger to allow 4 or more hits, something he has done in all 16 starts, we can lower the juice to a more palatable price.
Ranger Suarez has a 5.15 home ERA this season with a .282 OBA and a 1.64 WHIP. His 41st percentile xERA and 31st percentile xBA leave a lot to be desired. Suarez also struggles with allowing walks, ranking in the 32nd percentile. He has a below-average first-pitch strike rate and that is worrisome against the powerful Braves lineup.
Atlanta is hitting .278 in the last 30 days against left-handed pitching. During that span they rank 5th in OBP, 12th in OPS, 10th in wOBA and have a wRC+ of 117. On the season they are 24-10 when facing a left-handed starter. Adam Duvall is now out with a wrist injury, but this Braves lineup is deep and more than capable of filling in his spot. 19 of the last 25 LHP to face Atlanta have allowed 4 or more hits. Saurez has allowed 6 hits in both games against Atlanta this season.
Max Fried is on the mound for the Braves and is one of my favorite pitchers in the sport. His 2.64 ERA has an 85th percentile xERA to back it up. He has matching 93rd percentiles in terms of barrel rate and walk rate. Fried’s 92nd percentile chase rate is elite, as are his ground ball and weak contact rates. Each one of his pitches has a negative run value and he has allowed fewer than 3 runs in 14/19 starts. His road OBA dips below the Mendoza line and his ERA is better on the road than at home.
The bullpens have each been top 10 over the last 30 days, but Atlanta can expect a longer outing from their starter and I like them to have a lead when Fried exits, setting up their high-leverage arms. The Braves are 18-8 this season as a road favorite while Phillies are just 3-6 as a home underdog. I like Atlanta to improve to 15-5 behind Max Fried.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Atlanta Braves vs Philadelphia Phillies
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