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The second half of the MLB season has arrived. All 30 teams are back in action Friday night after a thrilling All-Star break with the National League finally taking home a win. The Philadelphia Phillies host the San Diego Padres to start off the slate and that’s where our action will begin. Yu Darvish is our top MLB player prop bet of the day! Don’t forget to check out our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Yu Darvish (Padres) over 17.5 outs (-125)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The last time these two teams dueled it out in Philadelphia, Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series. Ironically enough, Yu Darvish was the starter for that game and was more than serviceable. He pitched six innings and allowed two runs on four hits. Today, we’re hoping for more of the same.
Darvish hasn’t been great this season but it’s better than the numbers say. His xERA is hovering around 3.68 but it’s the walks that are up. His 7.6 BB% is his highest since 2019. He’s throwing a ton of pitches for San Diego but failing to eat up innings due to the walk rate. Luckily for us, the Phillies have the third lowest BB% against RHP in the last 30 days. His strikeouts will be a popular play today due to his history against some of these hitters, but I like for Darvish to give us bettors a quality outing in his first start of the second half.
He’s surpassed at least six innings in four of seven road starts this season and 21 of 27 dating back to last season. In four matchups against the Phillies, including two postseason matchups, Darvish dealt. He went seven innings in two of the starts and allowed just seven runs in 78 innings pitched.
You can also read our YRFI/NRFI Best Bets
Brayan Bello (Red Sox) under 5.5 hits allowed (-125)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Brayan Bello has been one of the best second-year players in all of baseball and looks to be the ace of the Boston Red Sox for the foreseeable future. After a shaky 2022 season with 11 starts that resulted in eight losses, Bello has seemed to find his place in the big leagues. He’s dropped his ERA to 3.04 and has been magnificent in his last 10 starts. He’s held teams to under three runs in nine of his last ten starts including the Texas Rangers, Atlanta Braves, and New York Yankees twice. Tonight, he’ll have it out with the Chicago Cubs in the Windy City.
Let’s start with the weather. Rain is in the forecast with winds blowing out. The wind won’t hinder me enough to not make this play. If anything, the delay could help us if Bello starts the game and then gets pulled. But we’re making this play based on Bello’s success this season and the Cubs’ so-so offense against RHP. They rank in the middle of the league in batting average, on-base percentage, and wRC+ in the last 30 days. This will be the first time these Chicago bats will see the 24-year-old which bodes well for us.
In the last two series the Cubs played before the All-Star Break, right-handers had their way. The Yankees duo of Gerrit Cole and Domingo German allowed just six hits combined. Before that, Brewers stud Freddy Peralta allowed four hits in 5.1 innings.
Bello has worked his way out of trouble on multiple occasions this season. His earned runs prop looks great but it’s a tad juicy. We’ll pivot to his hits allowed prop that he’s stayed under in half the starts this season.
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Charlie Morton (Braves) under 5.5 hits allowed (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Veteran Charlie Morton will conclude our top MLB player prop bets for Friday. Morton, in his 16th season, has been extremely solid for the World Series favorite Braves. He’s registered a win in his last four starts, but the value isn’t there with that prop. We’ll move to our favorite market so far in 2023, hits allowed.
Morton will battle it out with the Chicago White Sox who are waiting to sell to see if they can make a push in the AL Central. Arguably the worst division in baseball, the Central has zero teams above .500 including the White Sox with a record of 38-54. That’s in large part due to the underwhelming offense. In the last 30 days against RHP, they rank in the bottom 10 in batting average and K rate; two major statistics when analyzing the hits allowed market.
This will be the first time most of these White Sox hitters see Morton. Especially down at the bottom of the order. His high BB% will only help us as he should get into deep counts that result in either strikeouts or walks. Morton has stayed under this total in four of his last five games even with throwing over 100 pitches in three of those starts.
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