Javan Shouey
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There is an abundance of MLB action this Sunday with all 30 teams in action and several intriguing pitching matchups. My focus from a betting perspective for this article will be in Chicago as the White Sox ace Garrett Crochet is taking the hill. The trade deadline candidate is putting together an all-star worthy season and today I am looking to bet on his command of the strike zone. Let’s dive in!
Garrett Crochet (CWS) Under 1.5 walks (-110)
Odds available at DraftKings and BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130 odds. Risking 1u.
Garrett Crochet, a converted reliever, has dealt with numerous injuries in prior seasons, and as a result his previous seasons as a pro have been limited in terms of workload. This season has been a breakout one for the hard-throwing left-hander, entering the White Sox rotation, making an opening day start for the club, and performing at an all-star level. His performance has caught the attention of the entire league, as Crochet’s name is one of the most popular entering the 2024 trade deadline. Any team would benefit from his services and the White Sox are acutely aware of his value. Crochet has already tossed a career-high in innings pitched as a professional this season, and if Chicago is going to attempt to gain the most value, they can for him in a few weeks they would like him to remain healthy and fresh for his new club. Manager Pedro Grifol stated, “We’re going to start dwindling his workload down a little bit, and we’ll manage that correctly.” While the club didn’t directly state a pitch count limit or an innings cap, any decrease from his 88.8 pitches per start average would help our cause today.
Crochet has shown elite command of the zone this season, and today we will bet on that continuing with an under 1.5 walks allowed prop. I dislike walk props generally, as there is inherently a ton of variance when betting into small number props like this. I am still seeing a ton of value in this price, however, and there are several reasons why. Crochet ranks tied for 9th in zone rate this season among qualified pitchers, and his overall strike rate is the 20th best among that same list. He jumps ahead with a 63.8% first-pitch strike rate, and he remains in the zone 5.8% more than league average. When not in the zone Crochet is still able to generate strikes thanks to a 76th percentile chase rate. His opponent today in the Colorado Rockies have the league’s 3rd highest chase rate across the last 30 days and the 2nd highest rate across the entire season’s sample. Colorado also swings often, ranking 2nd in that category with a 51.1% swing rate. This leads to a ton of quick plate appearances, and the Rockies overall average of 3.85 pitches per plate appearance is a below average mark. Among the 21 left-handed starters to face Colorado this season, 12 remained under 1.5 walks allowed. During the last 30 days of play the Rockies have just a 6.8% walk rate in 235 PA against southpaw pitchers.
With Crochet under this mark in 11 of his 17 starts this season, and his 5.4% walk rate on the season ranking 85th percentile, a -110 price seems advantageous for this matchup. The Rockies will likely utilize 7 right-handed batters in their order today, and that has been Crochet’s better split in terms of walk rate this season, issuing free passes to just 4.8% of right-handed batters he sees. The White Sox have multiple relievers available that can toss more than one inning, including a rested Jared Shuster and Michael Soroka. Look for Crochet to attack the zone like he has all season long in this matchup.
