Best MLB player prop bet for today, 6/29: Will J.P. France get wild?

There’s another all-day MLB slate on the menu but I’ve found a spot of betting value in a highly-anticipated matchup in the nightcap. Here is my best player prop bet for Thursday evening.

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J.P. France (Astros) Under 2.5 walks allowed (-125)

Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 0.5U.

The inter-league series between the Astros and Cardinals has been high-stress so far, but the Astros have still not had to drain their bullpen heavily. Over the last 3 days, Shawn Dubin is Houston’s only relief pitcher who has thrown more than 20 pitches. That means the leash on J.P. France in this rubber match does not have to be very long if he gets into some trouble, so it makes sense to attack this under, which has hit in 7 of his 9 starts this season, and 4 of 5 on the road.

In June, St. Louis’ lineup has drawn a 4.7% walk rate at home against right-handed pitchers in the first 6 innings. That ranks 28th in MLB in that span. France relies on a high 18.1% called strike rate, which should bode well with projected home-plate umpire Emil Jimenez, who has been consistently pitcher-friendly this season on ball-strike calls.

To make matters even better for France, Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado is considered day-to-day with an injury and if he were to be out of the lineup, they would start Paul DeJong, who has an even lower walk rate against right-handed pitchers this season. Drink the small juice on this prop, which should be much more expensive.

You can also check out today’s YRFI/NRFI Best Bets

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