Ahaan Rungta
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We’ve got another spread-out MLB slate today with only a handful of evening games to work with alongside the NBA Draft; however, I’ve found a betting spot with value. Here is my best MLB player prop bet for tonight, but make sure you also check out our MLB picks for each of today’s matchups.
Samad Taylor (KC) under 0.5 hits (-110)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing; recommended 0.50u wager.
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The #21 prospect for the Royals got off to an emotional start in MLB by recording a walk-off hit in his debut; he has recorded a hit in 3 of his 4 games in the big leagues but for us, that just means we get a reasonable price to sell high. Taylor has only hit the ball hard twice in his 12 batted ball events and today, he gets one of the toughest matchups in the sport in Shane McClanahan.
The Rays ace has posted an impressive 2.12 ERA, 3.89 SIERA and 3.70 xFIP this season and all those splits get better at home (2.88 xFIP) and against right-handed hitters (3.60 xFIP). Against right-handers like Taylor, he throws a mix of four-seamers, sliders, changeups and curveballs, and Taylor hasn’t simply hasn’t shown signs that he is ready for the challenge — he has primarily faced four-seamers, sliders, and changeups so far and has an expecting batting average of under .200 against all three pitches.
Tampa Bay is a heavy favorite in this one even in a low Vegas total (7.5) so the books aren’t expecting much offense for Kansas City and it’s the right bet to fade one of their weakest bats in a spot like this, where there is also risk of getting pinch-hit for in the event of a close game.
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