Javan Shouey
Show Bio
Sunday baseball has been my nemesis this season, but there is a pitching prop with value that has caught my eye this morning. For today’s prop article we are heading to the windy city of Chicago to back visiting starting pitcher Nick Lodolo of the Cincinnati Reds.
Let’s dive in!
[promo_code type=”promoSingle” ids=”409152″ titles=”North Carolina is LIVE: Bet $5, Get $200 in Bonus Bets – Win or Lose!”]
Nick Lodolo, CIN, Over 5.5 strikeouts (-130)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -150 odds. Risking 1u.
Following Nick Lodolo’s May 11 start against the Giants, the tall southpaw hit the injured list with a groin injury that had been bugging him. He missed 16 days of action but returned for his last start against the Cardinals. Lodolo was able to register 5.1 innings of 1-run ball while being somewhat limited to 81 pitches across 21 total batters faced. Despite only 3 strikeouts in his return to MLB action, Lodolo draws a far more promising matchup in terms of strikeout potential today against the Chicago Cubs.
While the Cubs have only a 21.2% strikeout rate against southpaw pitching this season, I still find this to be an advantageous matchup. The Cubs have seen the 8th-fewest PA against left-handers this year, and the majority of them have come against weaker talent. Arms like Tommy Henry, Kyle Freeland and A.J. Puk have bolstered their numbers in that small sample, but the more talented southpaws they have seen have found success with strikeouts. Jesus Luzardo and Cody Bradford each notched 6 punch outs in their opportunity while Chris Sale (9), Max Fried (9) and Robert Gasser (7) have all cleared this line recently.
Active Cubs batters have just 30 PA against Lodolo, but the southpaw has earned 9 punch outs in that small sample size. Lodolo is averaging a strikeout recorded every 13.74 pitches thrown, and with his workload expected to increase in his 2nd start back from the IL, this line is more than attainable in my opinion. The Reds’ southpaw has earned 6 or more strikeouts in 5 of his 7 starts this season including 10 strikeouts against the White Sox in his season debut and 11 against a Padres lineup that is tough to strikeout. His 32% whiff rate sits 90th percentile and his 32.7% chase rate is an 85th percentile mark. Lodolo jumps ahead early in counts with a respectable 64.6% first pitch strike rate, and then utilizes his wicked breaking balls to generate swings on pitches outside the zone. Among all pitchers with 40 or more innings this season, Lodolo’s chase contact rate allowed is the 2nd lowest behind only Tyler Glasnow.
The Cubs have the 10th-highest swinging strike rate in MLB across the last 30 days of play, and there are numerous strikeout targets littered throughout their lineup. Lodolo likely sees 8 right-handed batters thrown his way, but this is common for his opponents to do. He still holds righty batters to a .274 wOBA while generating a 23.8% K-BB% and 3.21 xFIP on the season. We could benefit from a better home plate umpire than we have, but the weather in Wrigley makes for solid pitching conditions with temperatures in the mid-60’s and wind blowing in. I expect closer to 90 pitches and 6 or more strikeouts from Lodolo in this spot against this Cubs lineup.
