Ahaan Rungta
Show Bio
It’s a small MLB slate as bettors prepare for Game 1 of the NBA Finals tonight, but I’ve found a fantastic buy-low spot for a bet to make on the diamond today. Here is my best MLB player prop bet for Thursday, June 1, featuring a two-leg same-game parlay. But on top of that, make sure you also check out our Heat vs Nuggets predictions for the NBA Finals as well as our MLB picks for every game today.
Reds vs Red Sox Same Game Parlay: Chris Sale 5+ strikeouts & Red Sox ML (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing; recommended 1u wager.
This prop has the best odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook, and if you sign up right now, then you can bet $5 and secure $200 in bonus bets IMMEDIATELY! Head over to DraftKings now by clicking this link.
The Boston Red Sox are looking to avoid the sweep at home against the Cincinnati Reds and both teams will have their best starting pitchers on the mound for this one. The Red Sox are still heavy favorites despite losing back-to-back close games in this series, and rightfully so.
The Reds will start Hunter Greene, a hard-throwing right-hander who has posted a 3.45 xFIP and an impressive 3.33 SIERA and is coming off a six-inning, no-hit start in Wrigley Field. However, the Red Sox’s offense is no stranger to facing elite velocity and is a fastball-driven lineup. Despite injuries and recent inconsistencies, they rank 11th in run value/100 against the four-seam fastball over the last month.
Additionally, much of Greene’s arsenal relies on drawing chases on pitches outside the zone on both his fastball and his slider. He ranks in the 62nd percentile in chase rate and the 89th percentile whiff rate; however, Boston’s hitting approach can combat this — they rank below league average over the last month in O-Swing% and can make Greene battle through long at-bats and get to a gassed bullpen instead. Cincinnati’s bullpen already ranks 7th-worst in MLB this season in SIERA and their few great, high-leverage arms have been heavily taxed over the last couple of series.
For this all to work, however, Boston needs a quality start from their ace, Chris Sale, who has returned from injury with a vengeance, posting a 3.61 xFIP and 3.46 SIERA this season. He is doing so with a 68th percentile xwOBA and 88th percentile chase rate, featuring a heavy dose of sliders and changeups as putaway pitches. That’s bad news for a Reds offense that ranks 14th in run value/100 against sliders, 26th in run value/100 against changeups and 18th in O-Contact% over the last month.
Sale has recorded at least 5 strikeouts in 8 of his 10 starts this season and all 4 at home. He should be able to continue drawing whiffs and should get some help on any borderline takes on the edges of the zone, since today’s home plate umpire is Jim Wolf, historically a pitcher-friendly caller of strikes.
The Red Sox are 5-3 in series-closing games at home this season and that trend should continue as their high-leverage arms, Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen, are both rested and available to follow Sale in this one. Boston should be able to get back in the winning column and it is great value to get the correlated leg of “Sale 5+ strikeouts” to turn this into a near pick ’em.
Looking for a new sportsbook? Why not check out WynnBET, where you can bet $100 and immediately secure $100 in bonus bets. Click here to sign up for WynnBET right now.
Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.
