Javan Shouey
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We have a full slate of MLB action on tap for Tuesday’s slate with all 30 teams in line to play. Shohei Ohtani vs Framber Valdez may provide fans with the most entertainment, but I see value from a betting perspective in a different game. My favorite prop angle for today will be when San Diego travels to Minnesota to take on the Twins in the first game of their interleague series.
Let’s dive in!
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Michael Wacha (SD) Under 17.5 outs recorded (-125)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.
Last season Michael Wacha saw improvements in his baseline numbers, with his ERA of 3.32 in 127.1 innings being his best mark since 2018. He was able to produce meaningful starts for a Boston team that sorely needed it. Wacha’s underlying metrics pointed to a bit of good fortune, however. His .260 BABIP was the lowest mark since that 2018 season, while his 80.3% LOB% was more than 10% higher than his previous 3 seasons. That 3.32 ERA was shadowed by a 4.56 xERA, and this season his xERA is sitting at 5.37 — which ranks 23rd percentile. Wacha’s 29.7% ground-ball rate is a career-low mark while his fly-ball rate has skyrocketed to 37.6%. His barrel rate is above 9.6% for the 3rd consecutive season. Minnesota has the 3rd-highest fly-ball rate and 9th-highest HR/FB% against right-handed pitching this season.
Wacha throws his 92 MPH 4-seam fastball 31.2% of the time. That pitch grades out extremely poorly with a Stuff+ grade of only 68, ranking between Madison Bumgarner and Austin Gomber. Opponents have an xSLG of .455 with an xwOBA of .361 against his 4-seamer this season. His cutter is his tertiary pitch behind his changeup and 4-seamer but has been demolished this year. Against that offering batters have a .469 xwOBA and .707 xSLG across 25 batted ball events. Minnesota ranks 2nd behind only the Phillies in run value/100 against cutters this season. Wacha isn’t particularly efficient with his 4.02 pitches per plate appearance, ranking 37th among 127 qualifying pitchers. Even last year when he averaged 3.78 pitches per plate appearance and had a much higher ground-ball rate, Wacha was held under this line in 16 of 26 starts. Minnesota ranks in the top half of the league in pitches per plate appearance and BB% against right-handed pitching, which should drive up his pitch count.
San Diego had the day off yesterday and was able to rest its bullpen following a hard-fought series against the Dodgers. If Wacha gets into any trouble during the middle innings the Padres have the available arms ready to relieve him. Weather may also play a factor in this game. Rain may lead to a late start, which likely wouldn’t affect this bet. But any chance of a mid-game delay adds another winning scenario. With sharper books closer to -150, a -125-price tag shows solid value.
Charlie Morton (ATL) under 5.5 strikeouts (-104)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Available at -116 odds at time of publishing.
Charlie Morton has been a staple in the Braves rotation since rejoining the team before the start of the 2021 season. The veteran right-hander has made a living from his mesmerizing curveball but draws a tough opponent tonight in the Boston Red Sox. Boston has the league’s lowest strikeout rate this season against right-handed pitching at 18.5%. They rank 1st in average, 2nd in wOBA, 4th in ISO and have a wRC+ of 118 against those righties. The Red Sox have been particularly lethal against the curveball which is incredibly important in this matchup. They rank 2nd behind only the Dodgers in run value/100 against the curveball this season, and 21 of Morton’s 32 strikeouts this season are on that pitch. He throws that pitch 45.1% of the time and in 2-strike counts that usage raises to 52%.
Boston is constructed as one of the better contact teams in baseball. They only chase at a league average rate, but when they do they have the 5th highest chase contact rate. Their 9.7% swinging strike rate is the 3rd lowest mark in baseball and Morton is highly dependent on drawing swing-and-misses as he has only recorded 3 strikeouts on looking 3rd strikes this season. Boston has inserted 7 left-handed bats into the lineup today to face Morton. Morton has allowed an .886 OPS to left-handed batters this season and they have historically been his worse split. The top of the order features 4 batters with a K% of 16% or lower against right-handed pitchers since the start of last season.
Boston has consistently been knocking pitchers out of the game before the 6th inning, making his outs another appealing angle to consider. Atlanta had yesterday off which allowed their bullpen to recover from the weekend series against Baltimore. Having the larger strikeout threats at the bottom of the order, Morton may only need to face them twice. With his swinging strike rate being the lowest since his 2015 season, the under is my play on this 5.5 line.
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