Ahaan Rungta
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We have a small slate of MLB games on the ledger for today, but I have put in the work for you to find betting value. This is my favorite player prop for the night games on Thursday, May 9, 2024.
Maikel Garcia, KC, Over 1.5 total bases (+102)
Line available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
We have a series opener in Anaheim tonight as the Kansas City Royals bring their 22-16 record into Angels Stadium. Maikel Garcia will likely slot into the leadoff role for the road team once again in beautiful hitting conditions, so expect at least 4 plate appearances for the 24-year-old.
Although Garcia’s results overall this season have been mediocre, his metrics are encouraging for tonight’s draw. Against left-handed pitchers he has posted a 91 wRC+ but an unlucky .158 BABIP; what is notable is the low walk rate (4.3%) and solid contact numbers (45.0% hard-hit rate and team-high .318 ISO). Today he will face left-handed starting pitcher Reid Detmers of the Anaheim Angels, who has a relatively low 7.4% walk rate but a 31.3% hard-hit rate and 36.6% fly-ball rate allowed against right-handed hitters. He has been throwing primarily 4-seam fastballs and sliders. This season Garcia boasts a team-leading 1.235 xSLG against left-handed 4-seamers and since last season; he has a solid .426 xSLG against left-handed sliders.
The Royals’ leadoff man has a great chance to clear this prop against the Angels’ starting pitcher tonight, but even if he doesn’t get it done for us early, it is worth noting that an already-shallow Angels bullpen will likely list its best pitcher in Carlos Estévez as unavailable due to having pitched on back to back nights.
This prop is spectacular value at plus money and playable down to -120.
