Ahaan Rungta
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We have a sizable slate of MLB games on the ledger for today and that can sometimes be daunting for a bettor in knowing what to pick. However, we have put in the work for you to find betting value in the player prop market. While you can find out our MLB picks on the side and total for today’s games, let’s dive into my favorite MLB player prop bets for Tuesday, May 7, 2024.
Francisco Lindor (NYM) Over 1.5 total bases (+100)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Recommended 1u wager.
The New York Mets seek back-to-back wins for the first time in multiple weeks and they will have a chance to do so against the soft-throwing veteran starting pitcher Miles Mikolas. On the season, Mikolas has posted an unimpressive 4.09 SIERA and ranks in the bottom quartile of all arms in xERA, whiff rate, HardHit% and run value against his breaking balls and offspeed stuff. Against left-handed hitters, he has posted a low 6.0% walk rate but a worrisome 4.27 xFIP and a 32.3% hard-hit rate with no pitches in his arsenal that are even league-average at putting away hitters.
Indeed, the best candidate to take advantage of Mikolas’ aging skillset is Francisco Lindor. On the road against right-handed pitchers, Lindor has posted a low 6.2% walk rate but a solid 115 wRC+, .241 ISO, and 37.3% HardHit% against right-handed pitchers. Most importantly, he has a .520 xSLG against right-handed sliders (Mikolas’ primary pitch), which leads all Mets regulars.
Lindor is a great candidate to run into an extra-base hit early in this game but even if he doesn’t, it is worth noting that the usually-reliable St. Louis Cardinals bullpen is extremely gassed. Giovanny Gallegos is on the injured list, Andrew Kittredge and John King have each thrown 42 pitches over the last 3 days, and Ryan Fernandez and Kyle Keahy have also been used for recent outings. Getting plus-money odds is a great snag for Lindor to pick up 2 bases tonight; this prop is playable up to -115 price.
Head to DraftKings Sportsbook to get the best odds on this Francisco Lindor player prop bet. DraftKings currently has a new-customer offer where you can make a first wager of just $5 and instantly receive $150 in bonus bets! Click here to join DraftKings now.
