Javan Shouey
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With all 30 MLB teams in action this Saturday, baseball fans will have plenty of entertainment. There are some interesting pitching matchups on the slate but perhaps the game that has my most attention will be the Twins at Guardians game. We have a player prop in that matchup, so let’s dive in! Remember you can also check out our MLB predictions for all today’s games.
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Logan Allen (CLE) over 5.5 strikeouts (-112)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -130.
I am not intending to have most of my action on rookie pitchers, but this crop of young arms is very talented. We have seen numerous prospects debut this season, and for the most part, they have been successful. Tanner Bibee of the Guardians is someone we have backed, but today we will turn to his rookie teammate Logan Allen. The 24-year-old southpaw will make his 3rd MLB start for Cleveland today. Allen recorded 8 strikeouts in each of his first 2 outings across 11 combined innings of work, facing Miami and Boston. He reached 104 pitches in his last outing which is an encouraging sign moving forward. In those 2 starts Allen has generated a 14.7% swinging strike rate and 29.5% CSW%. A 66.7% first-pitch strike rate allows him to get ahead in counts and expand the zone a bit by drawing chases. Inside the zone his 74.7% zone contact rate allowed is 7.3% better than the league average.
Allen has been a strikeout pitcher in the minor leagues as well, with a career K/9 of 12.0 across all levels. In 25.1 IP this season he has recorded 36 Ks to only 5 earned runs allowed. Allen now draws a Minnesota offense that has struggled mightily against left-handed pitching. On the year they rank 29th with a 29.9% K% against southpaws. They have faced a left-handed starting pitcher only 5 times but each time that pitcher recorded at least 6 Ks. That includes Nestor Cortes twice, Patrick Corbin and double-digit strikeout performances from Chris Sale and Jesus Luzardo. Not only do they strikeout, but they are unproductive. Their .194 AVG ranks dead last while they rank in the bottom 5 in wOBA (.280) and wRC+ (77.)
Minnesota chases on pitches outside the zone at the 12th-highest rate this season. On those chases they connect at the 5th-lowest rate. They rank 27th in zone contact rate, have a league-high swinging strike rate, and lead all of baseball in strikeouts swinging. In terms of called strikes, Allen should see a slight boost with Gabe Morales behind home plate. Morales missed 7 calls in his last umpired game, all of which were called strikes on pitches actually outside the zone. We will gladly take any help in that regard. Allen has had good strikeout numbers against batters from either side of the plate through all levels. His 4-seam, sweeper, changeup trio combines for 95.3% of his arsenal. Each of those pitches has a whiff rate of at least 25.6% and a put away rate of at least 20%.
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