Javan Shouey
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With the Mets and Tigers set to face each other twice today, we have a loaded 16-game MLB slate, and plenty of angles to dissect. Yesterday’s MLB prop article highlighted 2 talented rookie arms who both cleared their strikeout props, and we are backing another young pitcher today in the Twins vs White Sox game. Let’s dive in!
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Louie Varland (MIN) Over 4.5 strikeouts (-110)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125.
Louie Varland will make his 7th career MLB start and his 2nd start of the season today against the White Sox. He was fantastic in his season debut, striking out 8 Yankees across his 6 innings of work. He quickly allowed 2 solo shots, but settled in nicely and found a groove. His velocity was up across his entire 4-pitch arsenal, with his fastball adding 2.4 mph on average. His cutter (102), 4-seamer (123), changeup (133), and slider (119) all graded out as above-average pitches according to Stuff+ in his first outing.
All 4 of his pitches were thrown at least 16.9% of the time against New York and he recorded at least 1 K with each of them. Varland seems to have control of his arsenal and confidence to throw his pitches in any count. With only a 60.0% first-pitch strike rate, the right-hander has even more room to get ahead in counts and let his stuff play.
Varland returned back to the minor leagues after his start against the Yankees. In 3 minor-league starts this season the right-hander has recorded 9, 8 and 8 strikeouts. His 253 combined minor-league innings have resulted in 323 strikeouts, good for a K/9 of 11.49. In his only MLB start this season Varland registered a 31.3% CSW%. He allowed only a 78.8% zone contact rate and a 50% chase contact rate in that game, which are both well above average.
He now faces a White Sox team that is slipping in terms of discipline at the plate. Chicago chases outside the zone more often than any other team in baseball while connecting on those swings at the 8th-lowest rate. As a team the White Sox have the 7th-highest CSW%. Home plate umpire Phil Cuzzi may have his eye out for sticky stuff, but is a generally K-friendly umpire. Varland should find success both with whiffs and called strikes in this matchup. At a 4.5 line with reasonable juice, I am willing to invest in his talents.
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