Javan Shouey
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Saturday’s MLB action spans all day with a 15-game slate set to entertain the masses. There are numerous intriguing pitching matchups on paper, but for this prop article I am highlighting a tough spot for Nationals’ starter Trevor Williams. Let’s dive in!
Trevor Williams (WAS) under 15.5 outs recorded (-133)
Odds available at Caesars sportsbook at time of initial post to Twitter. Playable to -145 odds. Risking 1u.
Trevor Williams is off to a solid start in 2024 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.09 WHIP allowed through his first 46 innings of work. The right-hander has made 157 career MLB starts and 198 overall appearances at this level, however, and the larger sample gives a better glimpse of the pitcher at hand. Williams is a low strikeout rate arm who fails to generate much soft contact, and this season his efficiency has remained subpar despite solid surface-level results. This bet is a play on his continued inefficiency and his eventual regression to the pitcher he has been for several seasons.
Williams ranks tied for 11th worse in pitches per plate appearance this season among 126 qualified pitches. His 4.09 mark is tied with guys like Patrick Sandoval and Hunter Greene, pitchers who are notorious for inefficiency. Today Williams will face a Seattle Mariners lineup that ranks tops in MLB with 4.07 pitches per plate appearance. The Mariners lineup has been overall an underwhelming unit this season, but they are willing to walk, and their low ground ball rate should help reduce the chances of double plays. Despite Williams having just a 2.35 ERA, his 3.32 xERA and 4.04 xFIP suggest that he has been a bit fortunate. His .267 BABIP is far lower than his .316 mark from last year, or even his .300 mark across his entire career.
Any regression in his game helps our cause today, but even with the way he has performed it has been hard to clear 15.5 outs. Williams has pitched into the 6th inning just 3 times in his 9 starts, and none of the last 5. His inefficiency has something to do with that, but so does his limited workload, seeing more than 81 pitches only twice. With just over 20 batters faced per outing and an average of 82.33 pitches, Washington has been very careful sending him out to face a lineup for the 3rd time. Last season he was lit up for a 6.90 ERA and .367 OBP the 3rd time through, and the Nationals have seemingly learned their lesson as he has just 15 TBF the 3rd time through this year. Washington’s bullpen is very well rested in this spot as they had Thursday off and light workloads the rest of the week.
