Javan Shouey
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We are just over a month into the 2023 MLB season. As the year progresses last season’s data becomes less relevant, and we get a better sense of who these teams really are this year. With a full 15-game slate on tap for Tuesday, baseball fans should be fully entertained.
You can check out all today’s picks in our MLB predictions, but my favorite prop bet of the day comes in the Mariners at Athletics game. Let’s dive in!
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Mason Miller (OAK) over 5.5 strikeouts (-105)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120.
I love investing in young talented arms and Mason Miller certainly qualifies. Miller, a former Division III pitcher, has shot up the minor-league ranks. His lively 99 mph fastball jumps off the screen and he is able to both locate it on the paint or elevate it for a swinging strike. A primarily fastball-heavy pitcher, Miller also incorporates a deadly slider that has drawn a 33.3% whiff rate so far. His cutter and changeup are both a work in progress, but for now Miller should be able to live off 2-plus pitches.
Despite falling behind in counts with only a 47.8% first-pitch strike rate, Miller has walked only 2 of his 36 batters faced. Miller faced 103 batters across all of his minor-league stops, allowing just 6 walks to a remarkable 53 strikeouts. He made an AA start with 8 strikeouts in 3.2 IP and an AAA start with 11 strikeouts in 5 IP. His stuff is tremendous.
I backed Miller in his MLB debut in a tough matchup against the Cubs and he cleared his 4.5 line. He then faced another relatively K-averse Angels lineup in his last outing. Despite a rough first inning that lasted 39 pitches, Miller was able to settle down and still cover this 5.5 line. His pitch count increased to 86 from 81 in his first outing and we may be able to squeeze 90 pitches out of him tonight.
Miller now draws a Mariners team that ranks 2nd-worst in K% against right-handed pitching at 26.3%. Jack Flaherty (9), Taijuan Walker (6), Alek Manoah (7), Kevin Gausman (13) and Chris Bassitt (7) are the latest righties to torch Seattle. There should be at least 6 prime strikeout candidates in today’s Seattle lineup and Miller has a K% of 30% or higher against either handedness. Miller is someone I will have my eyes on each time he takes the mound, and in this matchup, I am willing to invest in the over on his 5.5 strikeout line.
Twins ML / Joe Ryan (MIN) 5+ strikeouts (-105)
Odds available at BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.
The Chicago White Sox played horrible baseball in the month of April. Their 8-21 record awards them the 3rd worst winning percentage in MLB behind only Kansas City and Oakland. Their troubles are causing diehard fans to call in and give 10-minute rants to local radio shows. Even Sunday when they won on an Andrew Vaughn walk-off, the crowd was non-existent, and the franchise appears to be in disarray.
On the field, they can’t hit or pitch, both things you would hope to be competent at. Against right-handed pitching this season their offense ranks 23rd with a wRC+ of only 85. They rank bottom 10 in baseball in wOBA, OPS and ISO, while drawing the fewest walks. The White Sox were a disciplined lineup last season with tough outs throughout, but this year things have changed. They have the highest chase rate of any team at 36.6% while their chase contact rate ranks 8th worst.
That is troublesome with Joe Ryan on the mound. The 26-year-old Ryan pumps in first pitch strikes 72.4% of the time, setting up his sweeper and splitter. Both of those pitches are newer for Ryan, as he ditched his slider, curveball and changeup this offseason for his 2 new offerings. All 3 pitches generate whiffs at least 25% of the time. Ryan has seen an 8.3% increase in his chase rate this season, now ranking 94th percentile. He is also incredibly effective in the zone, with his zone contact rate falling 7.3% below league average. Ryan has been simply remarkable with a 26% K-BB% and 29.7% CSW%. He has pitched 6 or more innings of work in all 5 starts while seeing his pitch count reach as high as 100 pitches. Ryan has recorded 5 or more strikeouts in 15 of his last 18 starts dating back to last season.
Michael Kopech has been a disaster for Chicago. His 7.01 ERA is shadowed by a 9.89 xERA which is 1st percentile in MLB. Kopech also ranks 1st percentile in xBA and barrel rate, while 16th percentile in BB%. He has allowed 8 home runs and 16 walks in 5 starts and his 2 most-used pitches are getting crushed. His 4-seam fastball has a .573 xSLG and .450 xwOBA. His Slider allows a .757 xSLG and .469 xwOBA. 3 or more earned runs allowed in 4 of his 5 starts do not instill confidence. Behind Kopech is a White Sox bullpen ranking 30th in ERA and WHIP, and 29th in xFIP. I love this matchup for Ryan and the Twins.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) over 4.5 strikeouts (-125)
Odds available at BetMGM sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.
We are betting on a 2nd rookie pitcher today in Tanner Bibee. The 24-year-old right-hander flashed his potential in his MLB debut against Colorado last week. Bibee sat down 8 Rockies in 5.1 IP while generating a 33% CSW%. His 91-pitch workload was encouraging as well. Bibee recorded 7, 8, and 4 strikeouts in his 3 minor league starts this season and 186 total strikeouts across his 148 combined innings in the minors.
Today’s matchup is an attractive one to back him in. The Yankees are without their dangerous sluggers in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Instead, their lineup is rather watered down and filled with potential strikeout targets. On the season the Yankees have a 24.1% K% against right-handed pitching and we just picked on them with Nathan Eovaldi. Since April 13, New York has faced 13 right-handed starting pitchers. Since that date they have a wRC+ of 63 against right-handed pitching with a 30th ranked wOBA and 30th ranked BB%. Our guy should be able to work deep into the game.
Bibee was able to sit down batters from either side of the plate in his debut, and his breaking balls were generating a ton of looking strikes. The tunneling effect of his 4-seamer and slider creates a ton of confusion from batters. With none of the Yankee bats having experience against Bibee, that confusion may work in our favor. The Yankees as a team have the league’s most looking 3rd strikes while 27.2% of their overall strikeouts are without a swing. I am a fan of Bibee’s stuff and was impressed with his debut. In an advantageous matchup this is a spot I am more than willing to invest in.
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