Javan Shouey
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With daytime baseball and all 30 MLB teams in action this Saturday, there are plenty of opportunities to find worthwhile betting angles. Baseball fans have their choice of wonderful pitching matchups to watch, but sometimes the value can be found in betting against the lesser arms. My favorite prop bet today comes in the Mets at Nationals game. Let’s dive in!
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Trevor Williams (WAS) under 15.5 outs recorded (-110)
Available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -125 odds.
Trevor Williams primarily worked out of the bullpen for the New York Mets last season but has since been stretched out as a member of the Nationals rotation. Williams is a serviceable back-end rotation piece but has some worrisome aspects in his game. His 4.11 pitches per plate appearance tie him for 13th most in MLB among qualifying arms. Williams is generating a swinging strike rate of only 7.4%. His 15.2% whiff rate ranks just 2nd percentile. He has below league average ground ball and pop-up rates as well, making each out he gets even that much harder.
In his 7 starts this season, Williams has stayed under this mark 4 times while 2 of his misses landed exactly on 16 outs. He has faced 29 batters the 3rd time through the order this season, allowing a 1.064 OPS with only 2 strikeouts. The fact he has only seen 29 batters for the 3rd time shows both his inefficiency, and that Washington may not want that 3rd PA occurring. It also suggests batters quickly get familiar with him, and no team is more familiar with Williams than the Mets. Not only did he pitch there the last 2 seasons, but they also just faced him on April 27. He struggled in that game, allowing 11 base runners and 4 earned runs. He pitched only 5 innings despite a season-high 95 pitches.
Williams struggles especially with left-handed batters, allowing a .352 wOBA to them since the start of last season. His strikeout rate also significantly plummets when facing batters from the left side. Today, New York is rolling out 7 left-handed batters. Pete Alonso and Starling Marte are not easy outs from the right side either. Six of the 9 batters in the lineup record 3.94 pitches per plate appearance or more, with Daniel Vogelbach and his 4.52 P/PA leading the way. Even the bottom of the order, who you would expect to get out more often, should be able to tax Williams’ pitch count.
Of the 22 right-handed starting pitchers to get an outs prop against the Mets, 13 of them have stayed under their respective lines. Williams allows an xSLG of .530 or higher on each of his 5 most used pitches and I look for New York to pounce on him today. Weather could also play a role in today’s game and any rain delay would help our chances.
Check out our New York Mets vs Washington Nationals predictions
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