Javan Shouey
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Due to postponed games from yesterday, today’s slate is jam-packed with 17 games — including 2 double-headers and a showdown in Mexico City. Baseball fans will be thrilled to see the sport played from the early afternoon until the late hours of the night, and there should be plenty of compelling matchups.
My first prop of the day comes in the Yankees vs Rangers game. Let’s dive in!
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Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) Over 5.5 strikeouts (+105)
Odds available at DraftKings sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -120 odds.
Nathan Eovaldi has had some poor luck to begin his 2023 season. The offseason acquisition has just a 5.20 ERA through his first 5 starts. His xERA, however, is only 3.72 with an xFIP of 3.24. A .414 BABIP and 59.6% LOB% are both career-worst marks and unsustainable numbers. His batted ball metrics have improved from last season with just a 2.5%-barrel rate and .386 xSLG. Eovaldi has seen an uptick in his weak contact rate while still being one of the best in the league at limiting walks. A career-long 64.3% first pitch strike rate helps him get ahead in counts and set up his nasty chase pitches. Eovaldi draws chases outside the zone at a 74th percentile clip while opponents connect on those chases 5.4% less than average. His zone contact rate allowed is 4.5% lower than league average, as well. He is generating whiffs at a 30.1% clip overall with a 13.6% swinging strike rate and 31.3% CSW%.
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Eovaldi has worked 6.0 innings each of his last 2 starts. His outs recorded prop is set at 17.5 with heavy -185 juice towards the over, implying he sees 6.0 innings tonight. As someone who always hovers around a strikeout per inning pitched, getting this 5.5 line at plus money is appealing. The Yankees have a 24.7% K% against right-handed pitching as a team so far this season. Kevin Gausman, Joe Ryan and Sonny Gray have all recently diced up this New York offense for 7 or more punch-outs. The Yanks rank 21st in both chase contact rate and zone contact rate while ranking 6th highest in CSW%. Aaron Judge’s status for this game is in the air as of now, but if he misses that waters down the Yankees lineup even further. We should have 6 or so targets to pick on in today’s lineup.
The veteran right-hander has surpassed this 5.5 mark in 4 of his first 5 starts this season with his only miss being a repeat matchup against the Royals. He still pitched well in that game with 6 innings of 2-run ball and 5 Ks. Dating back to last season he has cleared this mark in 14 of his 23 full starts. Jacob deGrom only lasted 11 outs before exiting yesterday’s game and the Rangers would love a quality outing from Eovaldi tonight.
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