Javan Shouey
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Our prop yesterday was voided due to a pitching change by the Seattle Mariners, but we have another full 15-game slate on tap for today. With plenty of games to dissect, let’s not waste any time. We’ve cashed our last 5 MLB player prop bets in a row, so fingers crossed we can keep that streak going. My favorite prop of the day is in the Rangers at Reds game, let’s dive in!
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Graham Ashcraft (CIN) under 5.5 strikeouts (-121)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
Graham Ashcraft is a serviceable, middle-of-rotation arm for the Cincinnati Reds. He isn’t really a strikeout pitcher, however. The 25-year-old has made 23 starts in the last 2 seasons, failing to eclipse this line 17 times. His velocity would suggest he has more swing-and-miss potential, but his underlying metrics disagree. Ashcraft ranked in the 6th percentile last season in strikeout rate with a K/9 of 6.09. This season his K/9 is up to 7.88, but his 8.6% swinging strike rate is nearly identical to his 8.4% mark from last year. His zone contact rate allowed has increased while opponents are chasing on his pitches outside the zone less often. His increase in K% has been a direct result of more called strikes.
Ashcraft is falling behind in counts often, throwing first-pitch strikes only 56.7% of the time. When behind in counts he becomes rather predictable with his slider and sinker usage spiking. With 2 strikes, his main put-away pitch is his slider which has accounted for 13 of his 21 punchouts so far. Texas ranks 3rd in run value/100 against sliders this season. Overall, against right-handed pitching, the Rangers have been fantastic. They rank 1st in wOBA, OPS, and average while 5th in ISO. Texas is also rather k-adverse against right-handed pitching, posting the 7th lowest K% so far through 324 PA. They are also more than willing to take a walk and run up pitch counts, sitting 5th in BB% and 12th in pitches per plate appearance.
Ashcraft has a 1.88 ERA so far but his xFIP is nearly directly in line with his mark from last season when he posted a 4.89 ERA. His BABIP of only .250 is a .064 decrease from last year despite being a groundball pitcher without a shift now. That is unsustainably low, and he should see more baserunners soon. Speaking of those baserunners, his current strand rate of 86.5% is 19.7% higher than his mark from last year. Even with his inflated numbers, Ashcraft has been held under this mark in 2 straight starts and the Rangers have held opposing right-handers under 5.5 strikeouts in 11 of 17 chances. Home plate umpire Dan Merzel can be a pain with his called strikes, but there is too much to like in my opinion to avoid this spot. Texas has the 3rd lowest chase rate, the 9th highest zone contact rate and the 7th lowest CSW%.
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Zac Gallen (ARI) over 6.5 strikeouts (-122)
Odds available at FanDuel sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -135 odds.
Zac Gallen was one of my favorite pitchers to bet on last year, and this season appears to be no different. The 27-year-old right-hander finished 5th in NL Cy Young voting last season. In his first 5 turns through the rotation this year he has been even better. With a K-BB% of 28.9% and a career-high 13.1% swinging strike rate, I am more than willing to invest in Gallen in this matchup. This 6.5 mark is a number he has cleared in 4 of his first 5 starts, including 2 outings with 11 strikeouts. Dating back to last season he has 7 or more punch outs in 8 of his last 11 starts. He possesses some of the best command in baseball and has a knack for drawing whiffs within the zone. Gallen throws strikes on 67.8% of his first pitches to batters. Getting ahead early in the count allows him to dance outside the zone and draw chases, something he does at a 79th percentile clip.
Part of what makes Gallen so lethal is he has 4 put-away pitches. His 4-seamer, changeup, curveball, and cutter are all thrown at least 16.4% of the time. They each have a put-away rate of at least 20% with his curveball and changeup generating whiffs over 40% of the time. Gallen is also tough on batters from either side of the plate. Since the beginning of last year, Gallen has a 29.6% K% against left-handed batters. Kansas City is expected to roll out 6 left-handed bats including some nice targets. The projected lineup has 7 batters with strikeout rates of 20.3% or higher against RHP since last year. The Royals have a 24.9% K% against right-handers as a team this season. They rank 2nd in chase rate but just 25th in chase contact rate. Their 13.0% swinging strike rate also leads MLB.
Kansas City is not a good offense against right-handed pitching in general. They rank dead last in wOBA and OPS, while ranking 4th worst in ISO and having a wRC+ of 60. Gallen should be able to work deep into the game as a result. The right-hander has pitched into the 7th inning in 3 straight outings and thrown at least 96 pitches in each of those games. He is also a monster in his home ballpark, clearing this mark in 7 of his last 9 home starts dating back to last July. The Royals are 28th in run value/100 against Gallen’s top 2 put away pitches, and I will gladly back him today.
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