Javan Shouey
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All 30 MLB teams will be in action on Tuesday evening with a full 15-game slate on tap. There are plenty of solid pitching matchups, but my favorite player prop comes in the Mariners vs Phillies game. Let’s dive in to my best MLB player prop bet for today, but before we do, make sure you also check out our MLB picks for all 15 matchups.
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Logan Gilbert (SEA) over 5.5 strikeouts (-133)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -140 odds.
Logan Gilbert made noise last season for the Seattle Mariners, posting a 3.20 ERA across his 185.2 IP. The talented 25-year-old made changes to his repertoire in the offseason, adding a splitter, dropping his sinker and changeup, and making changes to both his slider and curveball. The splitter is something seemingly all Seattle pitchers tinkered with, but for Gilbert, it is working with a 33.3% whiff rate. Gilbert is throwing his slider harder and more often with a whiff rate over 40% against right-handed batters. His curveball has seen an 11.5% increase in whiff rate from last season and is also being thrown harder. These changes have made his profile much more appealing in the strikeout market.
Gilbert has recorded 7, 6, 7, and 8 punchouts in his first 4 outings this season. His 31.1% strikeout rate ranks 86th percentile, and he is inducing whiffs at a career-high 31.8% clip, good for 74th percentile. He rarely issues free passes, instead deciding to attack the strike zone with his nasty stuff. His CSW% is up 4.4% from last season and he generates a ton of looking strikes and strikeouts. Philadelphia is a great matchup for looking strikes as they have the 5th-most looking 3rd strikes this season. The Philadelphia offense is a good one, but they still have a ton of swing-and-miss in their lineup.
Today’s projected lineup has 6 bats with a league-average or higher strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since last season began. Even Bryson Stott and Trea Turner, who had low strikeout rates last season, are whiffing this season, and neither of them are among the 6 targets. Overall, they have a 24.7% K% against right-handed pitching as a team and chase at the 6th-highest rate.
With Gilbert’s changes to his arsenal, his strikeout splits have been far less drastic than last season. Gilbert had a 27.0% K% against left-handed batters last season but that mark fell all the way to 19.1% against right-handed bats. So far through 4 starts, he has a 30.2% mark against lefties and 32.4% against righties. I also love to see his workload. His last start resulted in Gilbert tossing 99 pitches. It is his 3rd time in 4 starts reaching the 6-inning mark, and in an opportune matchup, I like him to reach 6 strikeouts tonight.
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