Javan Shouey
Show Bio
We have a day packed with baseball as all 30 MLB teams are scheduled to play on Jackie Robinson day. My favorite prop of the day is a team prop in the Rays at Blue Jays game, let’s dive in!
You can bet on this MLB prop with BetMGM, which has a great new-customer promotion where you can get a $1,000 deposit bonus! Click here to take advantage of this offer.
Tampa Bay Rays first 5 innings team total over 2.5 (+105)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing. Playable to -115 odds.
The Rays finally lost a game yesterday, but now appears to be an opportune time to jump back in on their offense. Tampa Bay profiles as a team that will hit left-handed pitching very well this season. So far, the Rays have faced 5 left-handed starters and the 9th-most plate appearances against southpaws overall. The numbers are off the charts with a wRC+ of 161 and top-5 rankings in nearly every other metric. They have scored 3 or more earned runs off each left-handed starter they have faced this season. Granted the first 2 allowed their runs in the 6th inning, but they are seeing southpaws well regardless.
Their deep roster allows Kevin Cash to employ 8 or 9 right-handed batters in these situations. Against today’s starter, Yusei Kikuchi, that appears to be a massive advantage. Kikuchi has significant splits as right-handed bats always give him trouble. Last season the left-hander allowed right-handers to post a .907 OPS, .280 ISO and 12.9% walk rate. Overall last year he ranked in the 1st percentile in barrel rate, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity and in the 3rd percentile in walk rate. Control both in and out of the zone is problematic for Kikuchi and Tampa Bay is not the offense you want to have command issues against. The Rays rank in the top 10 in run value/100 against each of Kikuchi’s top 3 pitches so far this season.
Yusei has failed to make it past the 5th inning in either of his first 2 starts and only 4 times in his last 22 starts. Efficiency has never been his strong suit. His earned runs prop is set at 2.5, but with -120 juice, while we get a +105 price for the first 5 team total. There is always the possibility that he gets past the 5th inning before allowing the 3 runs, but there is also the chance of an unearned run occurring in the first 5 innings. I love the value on this play.
Check out today’s MLB mega parlay
Unibet has arrived, and you can get $100 in bonus bets by signing up right now. Click here to join Unibet and lock in their great new customer bonus.
Pickswise is the home of free MLB Picks. Check out the latest MLB Prop Bets and MLB Parlays as well as our MLB Best Bets from the experts.
