Ahaan Rungta
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Major League Baseball has handed us a weak slate with only three games to work with at night and five games overall. Yet, I’ve found a spot with plenty of value to bet on.
Here is my best player prop bet for the evening of Thursday, July 27.
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Dansby Swanson (CHC) Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
Line available at DraftKings at time of publishing. Recommended 1 u wager.
After missing multiple weeks due to injury, Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson has had no issues getting back into a groove at the plate. He has recorded multiple hits in three of his four games since his return and it was only last night’s 0-for-5 performance that put a damper into the streak. On Thursday he will be in premium hitting weather in St. Louis against right-handed starting pitcher Miles Mikolas.
This season Mikolas has been inconsistent to the tune of a lackluster 4.79 SIERA and 4.67 xFIP while ranking in the bottom quartile of starters in xwOBA allowed. Against right-handed hitters, he has allowed a .404 SLG, primarily mixing a sinker, 4-seam fastball and slider — all of which have been hit hard.
Overall since June 1, Swanson has a low 8.5% walk rate but a scorching 139 wRC+, .245 ISO, and 38.9% hard-hit rate on the road against right-handed pitchers, all among team leaders. In that span, he has posted a:
- .707 xSLG against right-handed sinkers
- .572 xSLG (with a 1.000 ISO) against right-handed 4-seamers
- .421 xSLG against right-handed sliders
Dansby Swansosn’s advanced metrics in 2023, per Baseball Savant
In his regular season career, Swanson has gone 6-for-17 with 2 doubles and a home run against Mikolas and I expect those good results to continue tonight. However, even if he can’t get the job done against the soft-tossing starter, the St. Louis bullpen has allowed a 39.0% hard-hit rate (highest in MLB) and has posted a 4.33 xFIP (#18 in MLB) against right-handed hitters since June 1.
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