We’re back with another Tuesday, jam-packed with Major League Baseball. Fifteen games on the schedule tonight, giving us a multitude of pitcher props that we can bet on. Before we get to these, make sure you check out our full game previews and picks if you’re looking to bet any game sides or totals.
In looking at my two best bets tonight, I’m keying in on the opponent just as much as I am on the pitcher. With one over (at a very attractive plus money price) and one under in my sights, let’s get to it.
Sandy Alcantara (MIA) over 6.5 strikeouts (+130)
Line available at publishing.
Alcantara is putting together another nice season for the pesky Marlins. Ten starts into the season, the right-hander has pitched to the tune of a 3.63 ERA, with 60 strikeouts in 57 innings. If you strip out his abysmal showing versus the Dodgers two weeks ago, Alcantara’s ERA would sit at 2.42. On the strikeout front, he’s only hit this line in four of his starts. However, the underlying numbers are still strong — he’s generated whiffs in the 74th percentile of MLB pitchers so far this season.
And with the Phillies coming into town, Alcantara should be in line for a nice night. Philadelphia is a bit banged up, as they’ll be without starters JT Realmuto, Didi Gregorious, and potentially Bryce Harper in tonight’s lineup. The injuries have taken their toll, as the Phillies have the second-highest strikeout rate and the sixth-highest swing-and-miss rate over the last month.
Alcantara is coming off a six-inning, nine-strikeout gem versus these same Phillies last week. With the injuries continuing to mount for Philadelphia, I expect Alcantara to continue to generate strikeouts tonight.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins.
Steven Matz (TOR) under 5.5 strikeouts (-121)
Line available at publishing.
In his first year with the Blue Jays, the results have been mixed with Matz. While the lefty pitched to a 5-2 record, his ERA sits at 4.69, and has recorded 50 strikeouts in 48 innings. He’s stayed under six strikeouts in five of his nine outings. Matz’s whiff rate currently sits in the 26th percentile, and his strikeout rate versus right-handed batters sits at 20.8%, well below the MLB average.
Tonight, Matz and the Jays travel to the Bronx to take on the Yankees. The Yankees, despite their stigma as a heavy strikeout team, have fared well versus lefties this year. Their K rate versus southpaws sits at 22.6%, which is actually the 10th-lowest in baseball. And with them likely trotting out eight right-handed bats in their lineup, Matz should have issues generating strikeouts.
Versus right-handed batters, Matz generally plays to contact, mostly relying on his sinker and changeup. The Yankees struggle most with breaking balls, which is Matz’s third pitch in the pecking order. With strikeout-prone Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks out with injuries, I’m liking the Yankees to get the bat on the ball tonight, early and often.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees.
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